Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

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mr_fuji
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Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

Post by mr_fuji » Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:47 pm

Can someone explain this trade to me? A new owner joins the league and promptly trades his top pitching prospect away for nothing close to full value. Is it me or does this feel like a complete giveway?

New owner, your reputation precedes you. I think your team is better off with DynastyBot at the helm.
Last edited by mr_fuji on Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jrthecrusher
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Re: Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

Post by jrthecrusher » Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:33 pm

According to what I've been told(by Admin) Compton's message board privileges have been revoked, but I can do my best to chime in with a (conjectural and completely un-asked for) third-party attempt at an explanation:

Compton's strategy in every league I've ever played in with him(this makes 4) has been to trade everything that isn't contributing to his big league roster for big league contributors. He values prospects(and non-tippy-top picks) at 0 since they're not better than what he has on his big league team and he can trade them to get more wins now, which he cares much more about than pie-in-the-sky future value on a guy who has a chance to stall out at A/B and be a firmly mediocre pitcher anyway.

You say he didn't get fair value, I say A ovr OFs in their early 30s don't exactly grow on trees and he's not a newbie throwing things away because he doesn't understand the game. Joyce, Kingman and Alcantara fall into the category of bench bats/fringe players/depth pieces that don't move the needle much so I'm looking at it as the SP who is currently blocked(4 A- or better SP <= OS 30) for an OF who can help push for a title w/ his team's current nucleus and some spare parts tossed in. Play on.


If he turns-and-burns the team to the ground to squeeze out a title or two and leaves the league worse off for wear in 6-7 seasons that's his prerogative. It's not great for those of us left with the unattractive bot team but it's not against any rules either so good luck stopping him - nobody has yet. Wouldn't be surprised if he makes enough trades to keep hanging on way longer than you have any reason to expect him to either.

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rnxn
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Re: Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

Post by rnxn » Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:15 am

This is the kind of trade the drives a lousy rift in a league, much like this owner has done before. Yet another reason this site is dying and leagues have so many bot owners.

I'm disappointed in the defense of awful ownership tactics. Comparing the #2 overall pitcher in the draft with an A-overall leadoff hitter with F health in his 30's is indefensible. If you offer that trade in reverse it gets declined 99% of the time. While he may not grow on trees, a starting pitcher of that caliber is worth far more. Wheezer Lyons will start contributing in two seasons and give Toronto 12 seasons (TWELVE!) of Cy Young-level contribution. This trade is lopsided af but hey- I guess the lesson we learn is if the check clears you get to do whatever you want, so now we wait 6-7 seasons before this abhorrent owner moves on and leaves a shell of a team? Can't wait to see the next top-level prospect he moves without shopping them around like an idiot. If this trade stands I worry we'll have even more bot ownership before we fill the ranks again. All this without even touching on the fact that the trade went down mere hours after he took over the team. To echo mrfuji, "Perplexing" is an understatement.

chuckymanfreedy3
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Re: Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

Post by chuckymanfreedy3 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:44 pm

Eh, I guess I have a few thoughts. I agree with JR, for the most part.

1) When you factor in where Compton's team is, Lyons would be blocked for quite some time. The oldest player on the relevant part of his rotation is OS30, meaning that by the time he starts hitting declines Lyons would be OS27. For Compton, he's trading a player that doesn't have a place on his roster for someone that does. When evaluating another owner's trade, you have to try to see it from their perspective.

2) Lyons is a solid prospect, but he's not really going to be ready to contribute for another 5 seasons. B+ overall, A-/B- at OS22 projects to A+/B+ and probably A- overall. He's going to have several seasons of a 4+ ERA before he starts to be productive, and it's entirely possible that his projection ends up as an A/B+ or A+/B depending on where he is in those grades and how he hits on ML improves. Even if he hits his peak valuation of A+/B+, low A overall, those kind of pitchers aren't automatically game-breakers. For example, look at Lieber on my team -- he's been A overall for a few seasons now and has been pitching to about league-average. At the end of the day, Lyons is a better fit for the current state of my team than Brye and he's a prospect worth investing into, but it's not like he's a supreme talent. There's a general overvaluation of pitcher prospects around the site (myself included). Being objective about it, I would bet against Lyons ever winning a Cy Young.

3) It's not like Brye has zero value. Sure, he has horrible health (which, frankly, is something way too many owners care about in this game -- it should be used as nothing more than a tiebreaker when two players have identical grades), but he's still an A overall OFer who has put up nice numbers since hitting his current grades. Give his splits and his age, 5 or 6 more seasons of strong play can be expected from him. He's a player probably worth 2-3 "pieces" in terms of trade value.

4) At the end of the day, if it was any other owner making this trade, people probably wouldn't be upset. I see actually unbalanced trades every season in the AOL. Compton is known around the website and, as was said, his reputation precedes him. However, this isn't a case of him throwing away something for nothing... he made a legitimate win-now move by giving up a piece that doesn't have a "fit" on his team. It also isn't the kind of trade where a more experienced owner fleecing a less experienced one or where there's any type of collusion. The only thing he might have done "wrong" is not shopping Lyons around the league first to maximize value (which we have no way of knowing if he did... Compton's message board privileges have been revoked and, for all we know, I was just the first one to hit "accept").

5) If there's anything to be upset about, it's not this trade. It's the mindset of an owner that will burn the team to the ground and leave the remains sitting in the league for another 5 years before a DynastyBot makes it attractive enough for a new owner. That being said, at the very least Compton adds a dynamic to what has otherwise been a pretty inactive league. If his presence increases trades and competition, it'll be a fun few years before we're returned to the boring DynastyBot routine.

raverob
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Re: Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

Post by raverob » Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:12 pm

I've been in Sim for a longtime now . This trade doesnt seem to fit the giveaway approach to me . Guys make trades for different reasons . I have over paid many times to get what I want .This pitcher is not a guarantee at all . A- B- is not all appealing to me . Like others have said at best A+ B or A B+. Not all that good to be a top starter on the roster . Its a game we all try to win at . Some dont give a damn others do . Its the way it goes . :D :D :D :D Thats why I've been in leagues where people care and compete . Other leagues I drop out out fast. the problem with Compton is he doesnt stay in leagues to long which is not the type of owner thats good for this game of SIM. The fun of this game is rebuilding after you have had your run at championships . Well to me anyway :D :D :D :D

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mr_fuji
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Re: Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

Post by mr_fuji » Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:49 pm

Some of the player projections that I see here are pessimistic at best and disingenuous at their worst.

I understand the new owner's outlook. A bit like a desperate sports GM trying to save his job, sprinkled with the CEO of your favorite private equity firm. I get it. I just question giving away a promising SP for a leadoff corner outfielder with middling defense and low health. I'm just going off the cuff here so forgive me if I meander in and out of responding to everyone's comments.

Other than his A overall rating, what is so special about Brye? He's had two All-Star caliber years offensively and some rather ordinary ones. I know nobody cares about defense but it does matter more than you think, as does health. I simply don't get the disregard for health rating. I mean, 15% less at bats equals 15% less opportunities to impact the game. Unless you have really good backups it does matter. That's not to mention increased injury risk and an increased chance of a late season injury impacting your playoff roster.

Lyons is already an A-/B with the potential for decent endurance. Considering a good starting pitcher can influence up to 1000 plate appearances in a season and an F health guy contributes to the outcome of roughly half of that (minus fielding opportunities), I don't see the equity here. How is Lyons being blocked? By the time Lyons is ready to come up in a few years, Martinez will be in decline and he'll have 3 SP mentors in his rotation. Is he a lock for A+/B+? No, but he's not going to be just an A/B AAAA League guy either. An A+/B guy has won the AL CYA two out of the last five years so it's very possible a pitcher like this competes for the CYA on a yearly basis. Chucky, Lieber is definitely not league average. Looking at his opponent's OPS, he's definitely better than league average and I suspect that poor defense is contributing to his ERA. EDIT: I know errors don't count towards OPS etc. Talking more about +/- defense and poor OF arm ratings.

We haven't even talked about peak years and development years but that's subjective and often times the price of doing business. I suppose if you're in win now mode you make this trade but I wouldn't feel good about not getting a high impact player in return. If I'm Chucky, I'm ecstatic about slapping 14 CPs on Lyons for a few more years. Yes, we've seen worse trades in this league but doesn't mean I wasn't upset about them.

Maybe I'm vocalizing a measure of sh*tiness here because the guy that's been kick our asses for a number of years seems to have gotten a great deal. Call it sour grapes if you will but I do care about the quality of the league and think that all of the owners we have here are a solid group! I wish I had more time to be in several leagues but this is the league I call home and just don't want to see it turn for the worse.

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mr_fuji
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Re: Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

Post by mr_fuji » Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:21 pm

Now that Lyons has already hit A/B with another 2/3 of a season left until he hits age 22, what does everyone think (and yes, I realize he's had 31 ICs in 60 games, which is a ton)?

jrthecrusher
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Re: Perplexing Milwaukee/Toronto Trade

Post by jrthecrusher » Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:35 am

It certainly looks worse now, but removing the hindsight bias - there was a lot more risk he would start looking A/B- and then A+/B- into a wide A+/B a week or two ago

If we had a crystal ball at the time of the trade I'd be somewhat more inclined to cry foul, but we had no way of knowing he was that far along in both of his grades. Could have been split 83/53 just as easily as ~82/~58. At his age/skill level those 5 improves in his weak grade could(not looking that way this season) be an entire season's worth of growth, and that's the only grade that really matters to his development. I still have him settling in around 96/71(with some upside) which doesn't really scream perennial CY Young contender to me. In the right season on a 1st place team or with a pinch of luck sure he could win one, but those are pretty '#3-4 starter on a contender' grades. He could for sure be the ace of a bad rotation but who plans on that?

Could be he gets lucky in his 23-26 years, steers clear of any dud development seasons and finds his way to A+/A- but that's clearly a risk Compton wasn't willing to take(or wait for). Not when he can cash him in fresh off being the #2 pick(in a really crummy draft) for a guy who can give him borderline AS production in 70-85% of the ABs in one lineup spot(which is a lot more than 0% of those ABs) and play not-the-worst defense on the IF(seems to be the plan) for the next 6-7 seasons. Brye is definitely not the cornerstone of an offense but he checks a box as a top-of-the-order bat, something Compton needed to make his "ill-advised" push that seems to be working out fairly well so far.

The 'blocked' argument I hastily threw together with my last bit of 2 cents is built on the notion that since your 5th starter is only going to start ~20 games in a season, he's only really contributing at around half his face value and you could get more bang for buck running with 4 studs and an innings-eater. Then trade that 5th good starter for multiple pen arms/help on the offense/some combo of the two. This is a pre-emptive trade of said 5th(future 3rd behind McLain and Strasburg) starter for the time-value of a piece that adds wins right now. Compton's priority is, always has been, and always will be right now. He does not care what Lyons is going to look like at his peak in 6-8 seasons after he's already left the league.

Going out on a limb, I'd guess he's probably tickled pink that he can still create this much chaos on the message boards without being able to post anything.



*DISCLAIMER: I do not personally condone any potentially team-raizing/league-destroying tactics employed by any of the parties to this trade. The fact is that turning-and-burning through teams is a) a viable strategy for piling up titles and b) not against any rules so as long as those 2 things are true people are going to do it. My larger point is that the rationale behind the trade is sound (enough) and that there isn't anything to be done about it.

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