Redrafting the 1999 Draft

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TheBigKahuna0
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:38 am

Redrafting the 1999 Draft

Post by TheBigKahuna0 »

Attempt number two to remind you all of your failures. Mostly I'm going to take a kicking from myself here. As a reminder on methodology:
I took a look at this draft using WAR to compare careers. It's a good stat to compare players, but is pretty general so slight differences shouldn't be closely examined. I snagged an easy calculation off the web, so who knows how exact it'll be. I also had to rate fielding and base running relative to the league average. Not guaranteed to be accurate. Good enough in my mind. I'm going to go through the order as it was on draft day and compare picks made to those who should have been made. I'll do my best to take into account a team's position. For example, a team might draft an import player if they've been on the bottom for a while. My idea here is that their CP's are tapped and a vet helps more. This is pre-speed league, so the old rules apply. Modern team names used because it's so much easier.
I made a slight adjustment reducing the weight of fielding and base running. They were throwing some things off and I'd like to stick to real metrics instead of my opinions.

The league on opening day 1999: Baltimore had defeated the upstart Criminals in the 1998 World Series and it would be their last World Series victory to date. For the Crims, it was their first of 12 straight postseason appearances where they would go on to win 8 titles (and a 9th after this window should have closed). But in 1999, it would the St. Louis Browns coming off a disappointing 98 season going on to play and win their first title sine '84. This would be their last playoff appearance until winning again in 2014. On the other end of things, KC, CIN, and both Chicagos lost 100 games or more. In 99, the Curse would escape the 100 loss cellar while Colorado joined the other three teams tormented by a repeat stay. In 99, 5 teams won 100 games or more: STL, SF, BAL, TOR, and DET (who would miss the playoffs by 1 game). PIT, NYN, and BOS were all on the rise. Cincy would pick first again this year.

1998 Final Standings:
NL:
SF
NYN
COL
STL
PIT
BRO
CHN
CIN

AL:
BAL
NYA
BOS
DET
TOR
WAS
KC
CHN

The Re-Draft:
1 - Cincinnati Red Legs
Real draftee: Fritz Anderson - RF 55.7 WAR
Re-draftee: John "Snoopy" Brown - SS 85.4 WAR #14 Pick
Anderson deserved to be picked towards the top of this drat, but Snoopy ended up the better player in terms of WAR. Anderson did hit slightly better than Snoopy in terms of OPS (.828 vs .802) but Snoopy brought an elite glove to a premium position. The real story is how Snoopy fell to 14th overall and ended up a steal for a playoff team. Cincy could have done a bit better, but I think the franchise was fine with Anderson's career.

2 - Chicago Curse
Real Draftee: Carl Devers - SP 30.3 WAR
Re-draftee: Brian McNabb - SP 75.7 WAR #8 Pick
Based on his draft position, Devers had a disappointing career. The Curse was lucky he got enough endurance to start but wasn't really effect. His lone All-Star appearance came after a mid-season trade to Baltimore in 2009. Chicago must have been really into Devers (or maybe Anderson) as they traded up 2 spots with their southside counterpart prior to the draft. However, that 2009 trade did net them current ace Ron Ogden and Devers was effective in his tenure, so it wasn't a total loss. McNabb enjoyed a much better career earning All-Star nods 6 times and holding a career WHIP of 1.17. With pitching the focus here, Chicago's do-over goes with the higher ceiling McNabb over Devers.

3 - Washington Senators
Real Draftee: F.P. Leitner - SP 42.2 WAR
Re-Draftee: Ray Rhodes - SP 60.8 WAR #7 Pick
Leitner was pretty mediocre with the exception of 2 great years in 08 and 09 where he was the Cy Young winner. Outside of those two years, he failed to make an All-Star team. The Senators went to the World Series in both of those peak years, but Leitner failed to win any of his 3 starts. Rhodes had a much more even career, taking home 1 Cy Young award and was an All-Star 3 times. Rhodes sported a better career ERA and WHIP and had better (although still mixed) success in the playoffs. Despite their differences in WAR, either selection makes sense here. Given another shot, Washington takes the slightly better player.

4 - St. Louis Browns
Real Draftee: Yoshio Sakurai - 3B 45.6 WAR
Re-Draftee: Yoshio Sakurai - 3B 45.6 WAR #4 Pick
The Browns ended up with this pick by dealing their 2000 first rounder to move up from #11. Their interest was a win-now player and Sakurai fit that bill. The power import was a mixed bag his first year with the Browns, hitting just .214 while mashing 28 home runs as the Rookie of the Year. He went on to alternate between great years and merely above average years before getting traded away to Chicago. Since we know the Browns were on their way to a title, it's hard to change anything about their pick. Even though Sakurai didn't contribute much in the playoffs of 1999, he was the right pick in this situation.

5 - Brooklyn Ballbusters
Real Draftee: Jeff Greene - 3B 33.2 WAR
Re-Draftee: Fritz Anderson - RF 55.7 WAR #1 Pick
Greene was a nearly ready 22 year old draftee with a "swing against righties [that] is nearly major league ready" (99 Prospect Report). He was never expected to develop vs left handers or defensively. What this franchise got was a guy that had a .840 OPS vs RHP, .756 vs LHP, and a -106 at third base. At the time, the team needed a player to reach the majors quick to go along with a developed core of young pitching. However, Greene was mostly a miss. In the re-draft (and maybe in the real draft given the chance) they get Anderson instead. Anderson appeared on that prospect report 12 spots higher than Green despite having a much longer road to development. Anderson was an All-Star starter by the time this team reached the playoffs and would have fully peaked at the same time as the rest of the franchise.

6 - Washington Senators
Real Draftee: Jack Bennett - 1B 23.8 WAR
Re-Draftee: Don Bergman - 3B 52.9 WAR #13 Pick
Bennett joined the Senators as a classic low contact/high power hitter completely lacking a defensive position. He was the second Washington pick of this round and ended up on the back burner most of his minor league career. He surfaced just prior to his promotion as the #3 Senator prospect and #19 overall prospect in the league in 2003. Despite his great power ratings, he only hit 29 home runs in his best season. He was decent in the field, although the WAR calculator knocked him down for a non-premium position. Bergman did not pick up the same accolades as Bennett (0 All-Star games to Bennett's 4) but ended up with a better career. Mainly a contact hitter, Bergman beat Bennett's career OPS by .13 points (although Bergman is still active at age 37). Bergman also plays a higher difficulty position and plays it quite well. While Bergman is unlikely to sell seats like Bennett could with his style of play, he could have been a better investment for the Senators.

7 - Toronto Geodesists
Real Draftee: Ray Rhodes - SP 60.8 WAR
Re-Draftee: F.P. Leitner - SP 42.2 WAR #3 Pick
As it turns out, the #3 and #7 selections simply swap spots and face off in the AL anyway. Leitner is a great grab at this point in the draft as the quality is about to take a nosedive. These two selections could have gone either way, but regardless left Toronto with whichever Washington did not prefer.

8 - Detroit Autoworkers
Real Draftee: Brian McNabb - SP 75.7 WAR
Re-Draftee: Carl Devers - SP 30.3 WAR #2 Pick
Just like Toronto and Washington, Detroit re-drafts the player Chicago took after Chicago stole Detroit's selection. It is hard to say how Devers fares in Detroit rather than Chicago, but there would be no doubt that looking up at the slew of players above there would be disappointment in this draft result. Devers likely does fine for Detroit, but he won't have the impact McNabb had.

9 - Pittsburgh Whiskey Rebels
Real Draftee: Shigeru Sawada - 3B 1.0 WAR
Re-Draftee: Jeff Greene - 3B 33.2 WAR #5 Pick
The Rebels were coming out of a long rebuild and likely were tapped out on CP's for a bit. So it would make sense to go after an import, but hot damn I bet they expected Sakurai to fall. Instead Sawada ends up spending nearly 2 years in Pittsburgh where his most notable stat was getting DFA'ed 3 times. Kansas City finally gave him a shot on that 3rd one and he was never mentioned in Pittsburgh again. He ended up purely a bench bat for the Rebels, but was clearly more of a fringe talent. Greene may have been a preferred target as a close to ready prospect. He would have offered much more off the bench than Sawada, but then again a ham sammich would have been more valuable at the time.

10 - Kansas City Athletics
Real Draftee: Yuniet Cuesta - 3B 4.0 WAR
Re-Draftee: Jack Bennett - 1B 23.8 WAR #6 Pick
It is hard to see KC's approach here going with the youngish import player in Cuesta. Cuesta had undeniable power potential at just 25 years old, but completely lacked a defensive position and never developed quality contact or speed. Cuesta cost the A's a decent veteran pitcher in Ben Wiley and was eventually sentenced to San Francisco for a couple of mediocre pitchers. Swap him out for Bennett and KC gets a 4 time All-Star with all the power Cuesta developed. Bennett was a far superior player to Cuesta at 25, but it is hard to know if KC had a full CP situation. Even so, it wasn't a great pick and there was plenty of potential left on the table.

11 - Chicago Thunder
Real Draftee: Gary Pence - RP -9.3 WAR
Re-Draftee: Britt Manion - SP 28.3 WAR #12 Pick
Chicago got this pick plus St Louis' 2000 first rounder for this season's 4th overall selection. Instead of Rhodes or McNabb, they go back and select Pence, who ends up dead last in WAR for the first round of this draft. The reliever ended up with a 5.17 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. On the bright side, he was "ready" right after the draft and was an All-Star in 2002. The rest of his career was rough, but the trade wasn't all bad for Chicago. Their 2000 selection, Jim Kainer, ended up having a solid career. Manion on the other hand had much more major league success although needed a couple of seasons to prepare. In terms of ratings, Manion ended up in the same range as Pence, but brought the value of a starter.

12 - Colorado Highlanders
Real Draftee: Britt Manion - SP 28.3 WAR
Re-Draftee: Joseph Timberlake - LF 23.0 WAR #19 Pick
Manion nearly fell to Colorado in our re-draft, but they'll instead of to switch away from pitching and go with Timberlake. Timberlake was once an All-Star and actually won a batting title hitting .340 in 2005. However, he was pretty middle of the road and probably doesn't stick with a team like Colorado. While he won 2 Gold Gloves in left, he was mostly forgettable defensively while not providing enough pop for the position. Still, beats what's about to come next in this re-draft.

13 - New York Bombers
Real Draftee: Don Bergman - 3B 52.9 WAR
Re-Draftee: Walter Dunlap - LF 20.8 WAR #39 Pick
Bergman was a great pick at #13 overall, but the Bombers don't have much hope in the re-draft of doing so well. After a 2nd rounder got bumped up, we have to reach into the 3rd round for Dunlap. Dunlap wasn't a terrible player, but was a weak starter or good 4th outfielder. Dunlap was drafted by Toronto but was dealt in 99 to KC in the Chick Clear blockbuster. KC went on to waive Dunlap who resurfaced in SF before spending most of his career in Pittsburgh. Dunlap gives New York an average bat able to fill in at all outfield positions. It's not what you want in the first round, but in this re-draft it's the best they'll get.

14 - New York Gothams
Real Draftee: John "Snoopy" Brown - SS 85.4 WAR
Re-Draftee: Bill Foucault - RP 12.8 WAR #15 Pick
The Gothams made out well in this draft, seeing several busts taken prior to the gem of the draft. In this alternate universe the Gothams are left with Faucault. Faucault entered the league as a starter, but got knocked around until moving to the bullpen. He was an All-Star in 2010 and got up to A+/B- skills. Maybe a different approach dropping the starter experiment from the get-go helps him out, but regardless he's still a massive downgrade on who the Gothams ended up with in the original draft.

15 - Kansas City Athletics
Real Draftee: Bill Foucault - RP 12.8 WAR
Re-Draftee: Sam Boyland - CF 18.7 WAR #22 Pick
After missing out on Faucault by one pick, the A's bring Sam Boyland up from the 2nd round in the re-draft. Boyland was a capable defender in CF ending up with 2 Gold Gloves. He had solid contact and lead the league in walks in 2001. In this draft, KC ends up with a decent backup outfielder who could occasionally start vs right handers. Not much, but it's the last 10+ WAR player left on the board.

16 - Kansas City Athletics
Real Draftee: Orlando Fields - 2B 4.9 WAR
Re-Draftee: Yuniet Cuesta - 3B 4.0 WAR #10 Pick
Given the lack of options here, Fields would have been fine. Instead, the re-draft goes a little differently for KC and they get Cuesta anyway at the end of the round. The 25 year old's power is worth a shot at this point rather than another past the fringe prospect KC likely doesn't have room for anyway after already spending 2 picks this draft. There's only 3 other players left on the re-draft board with positive WAR's, so Cuesta is an easy choice.
femgo
Posts: 687
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:16 am
Location: Brazil

Re: Redrafting the 1999 Draft

Post by femgo »

It looks like I did a good job.
I had Rhodes ranked #1 and got him.

Fritz Anderson had crazy good ratings, I imagined he had better numbers.
paulcaraccio
Posts: 152
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:19 pm

Re: Redrafting the 1999 Draft

Post by paulcaraccio »

i had to look up how long you've been in the league to make sure you were the one who drafted Sawada lol. I was very wrong about Sakurai, I thought that was a bad pick. Cuesta's a 6-time champ! but it's pitiful that he's a re-draft 1st rounder.
sirguru75
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:14 am

Re: Redrafting the 1999 Draft

Post by sirguru75 »

Glad to see Snoopy is appreciated. I've enjoyed having him at SS for nearly his whole career.
jthurm2
Posts: 796
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:43 am

Re: Redrafting the 1999 Draft

Post by jthurm2 »

This is very cool.
I just had my first draft. Hoping to be around long enough to see how it ends up.
User avatar
TheBigKahuna0
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Redrafting the 1999 Draft

Post by TheBigKahuna0 »

You may remember me joining, but I think 99 was my 13th season? I was just finally turning that train wreck left to me around for my one glorious campaign of 2002. I think about how many seasons it's been and that seems crazy. Then I think about where I was in those early seasons then I realize I've been playing this game a really long time. I think I've been in this league 5-6 years

I was re-reading my prospect reports from way back and I was way off on Snoop. While a lot of his WAR is coming from his defense, he's been fantastic. He's the kind of guy I'm hoping Miklos can be, but I had to use the top pick on him. Always nice to see someone strike gold late in a draft, just wish it was me
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