Post Washington

Discussions for the Kevin Brown League.
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Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:34 pm

Re: Post Washington

Post by todd999430 »

Frankum - What's your opinion on NOT taking an A+ 21 year old pitcher with the 1st pick in the draft because they have C endurance?
Posts: 2874
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:34 pm

Re: Post Washington

Post by todd999430 »

frankum wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 3:12 pm I think I've spent 3+ hours now going through my below reply to try and explain the game and player evaluation to you. How much time do you spend diving into the numbers of the players and the results of the sim? I spend a shitload. Especially for this league. For this league I even calculate market trends. Do you know how much our league spends on long term contracts based on a players OPS? I do. Because of this I know how to find deals and I know who overpays. The guys who are routinely at the top for overpaying contracts are not the guys who are winning. Do you know how much our league spends on long term contracts based on a players ERA? I know this too. I keep these numbers calculated on a rolling 5 year period to track the trends.

I plan my rosters 5-7 years in advance. I currently have a plan for my team through the 2177 season. I don't sign any free agents without looking at the free agent market 3 years from now (is the class really thin at hitting this year but loaded in 3 years? If so, I'm not overpaying for a long term contract right now that looks terrible in 3 years. I'll sign 2 years of 1 year rental players and then I'll try to get either the best player or the best value steal in the loaded class). Are there NO good hitters for 3 years? Ok I should trade for one. What can I realistically expect from my minor league players who are developing? I track my minor league players improvement percentages so that I know what pathway of variable development they are on! Does an owner typically undervalue a certain type of a player? I know what owners value what players so that I can target trades. If I don't see any stud pitchers coming for 3 years then I'm trying to trade for one. I know what combination of ratings most likely leads to greater chance of overperformance. I can even give you an estimate within 5% of how many games my team will win. I don't say this with any ego whatsoever but if I know all this and you don't then how can you expect to have a better team than me?
master86 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:26 am You cannot tell me, with a straight face, that Florida has a better team than the Rotties or the Knights. Not in any universe.
In this league I have noticed after a long run of success your players have a trend towards over performance and in close games you will get the benefit of the doubt. Almost like some sort of winning culture build in which is probably related towards prestige. I put together what I felt like was as competitive of a team as I could while I had to develop a few players. I'm overperforming my pythag right now so I'll have a reckoning coming soon. My offense is being absolutely carried by Dennis Quaid and Keith Kelly. They're mashing the ball right now. My pitching staff as a whole is under performing by my calculations and is below league average. Weird shit happens. If weird shit always happens negatively towards you.....the problem isn't the weird shit.
master86 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:26 am You lost me when you said endurance has no bearing. Thats just crazy talk.
Do me a favor. Open up your owner card. Open up my owner card. Look at them. When I tell you that endurance doesn't matter on relievers with some very tiny exceptions, why would you not believe me? You do not understand what you're doing in this sim and that's crystal clear with your results. I am trying to help you and you're just saying you are right and I am wrong. It's patently absurd.
master86 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:26 am You want me to believe that your B rated backup catcher...with B contact/B- power/C+ speed is hitting .292 with .430slugging? That he has two HR's off of RHP? This season he almost has as many walks as K's....LOL....omg make it stop. Last season he DID have more walks than k's. I'm sure you have an excuse for that too.
master86 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:26 am Now for the final observation...Take a look at Florida's team. A LAUGHABLY bad bullpen. As a matter of fact, his whole staff might have 2 decent playoff caliber pitchers.
I've been to the playoffs around 7 straight seasons with these same pitchers. You've been to the playoffs 8 times ever in the KBL. Why is it that you think you have an understanding of what playoff pitchers look like? This is almost always what my bullpens look like. This is almost always what my pitching staffs look like. I can tell you the single individual ratings of every one of my players. Again you keep thinking (and thinking it incorrectly) that all A- are created equal. They aren't.
master86 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:26 am As for his lineup, christ on a cracker is it bad. He "might" have two power hitters, but one of them has the dreaded B- contact you frown upon. FFS, FIVE of his eight in the lineup have B or less power. I'm stunned he won more than 55 games this year.
This is the single dumbest observation you've ever had, and that's saying something. There are 3 MVP caliber bats starting on this lineup right now. If you have a core of hitters like that on well valued contracts, you're already a playoff caliber lineup. Hard stop. I'll go through my entire lineup and lay it out for you. I'll even give away every single secret that I hold dear and have learned in this game. Listen, or don't, but it works. The proof is in my results and I'm trying to help you understand that you're going about this wrong. In one, final, last ditch effort I will even show you the EXACT ratings of every player on my roster who is a relevant player/performer and how they compare to their numbered ratings. I use excel to calculate the ratings of every player on my roster and every free agent class. The guys on my team who have not come up in my specific system I have a calculation that I will not sure to estimate their exact numbers and it's pretty damn accurate. I can't believe I'm going to spend the time it takes to do this, it's going to take me over an hour to explain all this and then format it in such a way that's readable and understandable.

Steve Boehling - STOP LOOKING AT JUST NUMBER RATINGS. This guy has 5 all star appearances and has been WILDLY consistent. Do you think I traded for him because I thought he sucked? I traded for him because I knew he'd be good on my team because he's always been good on my team. Sometimes players perform and sometimes they don't. It's pretty easy to tell BY LOOKING AT THEIR STATISTICS. As expected.

Overall: A = 78.50
CvR: A+ = 100
PvR: B = 66
CvL: A+ = 92
PvL: B+ = 76
Spd: B+ = 75
Rng: A- = 79
Arm: A = 87

Duane Taylor - I don't care about backup catchers. Honestly for the most part I don't care about bench players at all. I want a loaded lineup of starting players, a loaded lineup of starting pitcher, and the rest I try to get as good as I can for as cheap as I can. For backup catchers I try to find A+ arm and that's it. Once I get one long term for cheap I don't even look at them. Overperforming.

Not sharing rating because I don't know them and don't care.

Gary Ferguson - He was an A- overall player that I did not like at all. I didn't even bid on him. But when I saw I could get a utility player who is A- overall with good speed for $1m, I placed a bid. First year I used him as a bench guy and he did really well. Next year I started him to see what he would do and he did worse but still did OK. This is a guy who plays really well on my team. As expected.

Overall: A- = 79.10
CvR: A+ = 98
PvR: B- = 54
CvL: A+ = 100
PvL: B+ = 68
Spd: A = 90
Rng: A- = 76
Arm: B- = 59

Mark Buckels - I want all of my bench players to be high B+ overall, almost A-, 29 year olds with good speed, and that have had some improvements in their 27/28 year old seasons. My hope with them is that they will get a few improvements or more and end up A- overall. Then if they perform well for me they are a very cheap A- overall player who I can start so that I can spend more on a monster bat. I always want monster bats. Buckels has not performed. Maybe he won't. I don't know but he's exactly the player I like to take a chance on. Underperforming.

Overall: B+ = 73.82
CvR: B- = 53
PvR: A = 87
CvL: C+ = 46
PvL: A+ = 92
Spd: A = 84
Rng: B+ = 69
Arm: A = 90

Ron Glass - Has had really good stats the last 5 years and was cheap. I thought he would be good for me. He hasn't. Underperforming.

I don't know his ratings, went on pure performance with this sign.

Fred Lapan - I didn't really want him this year given his big drop in speed. But I missed on the bats that I actually did want and he was the best left available. He's done fine off the bench. As expected.

Overall: A- = 78.04
CvR: B+ = 72
PvR: A = 85
CvL: B+ = 73
PvL: A = 84
Spd: B+ = 75
Rng: B = 66
Arm: A- = 83

Fred Judd - One of the aforementioned bench players that I love to target. He hasn't panned out as well as I hoped but he's still been really solid and a potential starter for .85m. As expected.

Overall: B+ = 73.44
CvR: B = 62
PvR: A = 91
CvL: B = 61
PvL: A- = 79
Spd: A = 86
Rng: C+ = 47
Arm: A- = 81

Jiggs Hudgens - he sucks. I expected him to suck but I'm hoping he won't suck forever. Who knows. As expected.

Overall: B+ = 71.26
CvR: A+ = 95
PvR: C = 41
CvL: A+ = 96
PvL: B = 64
Spd: B+ = 75
Rng: C+ = 48
Arm: B+ = 71

Chief Lonergan: He sucks. I expected him to suck. He's been a massive disapointment and I keep playing him and hope that he will give some value before he leaves as a FA. As expected.

Overall: B+ = 71.30
CvR: A- = 78
PvR: B- = 59
CvL: A = 89
PvL: B- = 59
Spd: A- = 80
Rng: B+ = 75
Arm: B- = 54

Dennis Quaid: Monster #1 on this team. It shouldn't be a surprise that he's a monster because he's always been a monster. He's worth every penny of the 9.25 because he has the ratings and he has the performance to match. I knew what I was getting when I signed him because he had been giving me really good MVP caliber performance the entire time he was on my roster on a rookie contract. As expected.

Overall: A = 87.50
CvR: B+ = 73
PvR: A = 89
CvL: A- = 78
PvL: A+ = 100
Spd: A+ = 100
Rng: A = 86
Arm: A = 85

Keith Kelly: Monster #2 on this team. I didn't love his ratings because of his A- speed. I loved his performance with YOUR TEAM in his last two years. This is a guy that you should have signed because you knew that he was giving MVP caliber performance on your team. I suspected he would even perform better on my team with all the hitters parks in my league. Why would you not sign him? 6m is a steal for this guy, he's very likely almost a full A player. As expected.

Overall: A- = 83.30
CvR: B+ = 74
PvR: A+ = 99
CvL: B = 66
PvL: A+ = 98
Spd: A- = 78
Rng: A = 88
Arm: A- = 81

Gary Duran: Monster #3 on this team. Just as with Quaid, I knew exactly what I was getting with Duran because he has played on my team before. I was getting 20-25 home runs with an 800 OPS pretty consistently. That's easily worth 5.75m. His ratings are not what I would traditionally want, but he's a borderline full A player, and he'd already proven he could perform on my team. I never said I don't like B-/A+ split hitters. I love them....IF THEY PERFORM. You so desperately want to know the difference between Duran and your B-/A+ hitters and it's pretty damn simple: nothing. I just don't have an entire roster full of them. I only have ONE of them and it's Duran. As expected.

Overall: A- = 82.46
CvR: B- = 58
PvR: A+ = 100
CvL: B = 66
PvL: A+ = 96
Spd: A = 91
Rng: B = 67
Arm: A+ = 100

Joe Tonneman: He's only on my team because of a trade. No insight here.

Ken Johnson: The perfect example of why I like bench players just like him. Was a B+ overall player who popped as A- overall. Has great speed. Has performed remarkably and is now an amazing starter at .8m. As expected.

Overall: A- = 78.12
CvR: B+ = 75
PvR: A- = 78
CvL: A = 84
PvL: B+ = 70
Spd: A+ = 100
Rng: C+ = 50
Arm: A- = 80

Jimmy Harbidge: Another of the bench players that I love. High B+ overall with good speed and potential to keep developing. He's a lefty with contact>power splits and good speed so he's going to be damn good at getting on base. Lots of potential here. He's going to be more the .730 OPS guy he was last year than the .833 OPS he is this year over the long haul but this is what I hope for when I sign these types of guys based on their ratings. His A- contact is almost A contact and his B- power is almost B. A/B lefties with speed traditionally do very well. Over performing.

Overall: B+ = 73.36
CvR: A- = 83
PvR: B = 60
CvL: A- = 83
PvL: B- = 59
Spd: A = 86
Rng: A+ = 96
Arm: C+ = 44

After about 40 games into the season I'll adjust my lineup. I will no longer go based on ratings and I will go strictly based on performance. Players have good years sometimes and then sometimes they don't have good years. I try to keep a foundation of guaranteed 100% stud hitters who will produce surrounded by well rounded enough players that I can find a couple diamonds in the rough from season to season. But I absolutely cannot miss on the guys that I pay big money and as you can see here, I haven't. You have spent big money on 5 batters and you missed on 2 out of 3. Nevers is not worth 7m, he's a 4M guy. Mickey Morrison is not worth 6m (he's a leadoff guy. You can find these same stats with an A/B lefty and get him for 3-4m. He doesn't drive in runs). Buck Marshall is an absurd miss at 10m. .820 career OPS for 10m? You overpaid by 3 million - 4 million for that performance. Ty Newton at 5 million is a hit but you only have him for 1 year. Bob Kiser is another hit. Your big paid hitters have a negative contribution based on their price to the tune of about 8million. That's an ace pitcher you could have added to your roster.

Pitching Staff

Blackjack Samuel: He's declining now but he was a foundational starter for a few years. Still doing well given everything else though. As expected.

Overall: A- = 77
Velocity: B = 61
Control: A+ = 93
(i won't included endurance because it doesn't matter)

Jim Kuhn: I have a thing for A-/A- starters. I feel like they're undervalued. I knew I could get 230+ innings out of Jum Kuhn and he would be a really well priced long term #3 pitcher. He's been exactly that. As expected.

Overall: A- = 80
Velocity: A- = 83
Control: A- = 77

Herb Finley: A 1 year signing for me when I was desperate for a solid pitcher. He's been VERY good his last 4 years and is still A- overall. He's doing worse than I had expected though. Under performance.

Overall: A- = 76
Velocity: A- = 76
Control: A- = 76

Alex Pladson: He was a foundational starter for me for a long time. I knew what his numbers were and I was desperate for a starter. He has underperformed strongly.

Overall: A- = 79
Velocity: B+ = 73
Control: A = 85

Joe Frisbee: I needed someone cheap who could start and not suck. He's cheap but he's sucked. Underperformance.

Overall: A- = 76
Velocity: A = 88
Control: B = 64

Von Ganzel: I want my bullpen to be cheap, have decent ratings, and showed some ability to perform in their history. Ganzel sucks but he's cheap and he's young and he might develop well enough over the years but he is almost a B+ so he's not really a B overall player to me. Over performance.

Overall: B = 67.5
Velocity: A- = 76
Control: B- = 59

Ike Sodd: Love these players. Love them. Cheap and improving. He's been pretty consistently OK for me the last 3 years. Consistently OK is all I want in a bullpen. A bullpen is always going to suck. I just want them to maybe not suck so bad. Young relievers tend to do poorly unless their ratings are remarkable. If I see a reliever who has amazing numbers in his youth, I'm doing everything I can to sign them. Because those numbers will just get better. If I see a guy like this who is consistently OK with solid numbers, I also like him. I'd be willing to pay 2.5m for Ike Sodd and set him as my closer. But he's not good enough to warrant more than that to me. Guaranteed someone goes 3m+ for him and he will be one of 5 guys in the bullpen for 3+m. Keep the bullpen as cheap as possible with guys who have shown performance history and are high B+ overall or better. I also prefer to not have splits that are A velocity and B control. I LOATHE those guys. They usually suck and get overpaid. As expected.

Overall: A- = 81
Velocity: A = 88
Control: B+ = 74

Emmett Pillion: I'd had him on my team before and he was a monster for a long time. B+/B+ is still good and and he's been really solid recently. At 1.25m he's a steal. I probably should be starting him. As expected.

Overall: B+ = 73.5
Velocity: B+ = 72
Control: B+ = 75

Tim Davis: B+/B+ guy who could start if needed and has been pretty consistently OK over the years, but he has been very very consistent. I love consistent bullpen guys. He's doing a big time over performance.

Overall: B+ = 73.5
Velocity: B+ = 72
Control: B+ = 75

Jim Deasley: I love this guy. He's dirt cheap, he's improving, and he's been crazy consistent already through 2 years. He's a high A+ velocity, a high C+ control and a high B+ overall. He's only going to get better too. Occasionally you find A+/B- type guys who just perform and he appears to be one of them. But I won't be shocked at all if he rattles off an ERA of 5+ a couple times. It happens and I'll move him out of the closer roll when it does. Over performance.

Overall: B+ = 74.5
Velocity: A+ = 98
Control: C+ = 51
i'm going to read this later... just want to save it for now.
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:31 pm

Re: Post Washington

Post by lumbercompany27 »

Washingtons current roster could use, like, 9 or 10 players
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Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2023 11:31 am

Re: Post Washington

Post by Totalrecall »

I am certainly not the best at this game nor do I pretend to be. But something I have come to realize about this game is that some players over achieve for their careers and some underachieve for their careers. Stats matter. Also when I have played you it is almost always a slugfest, it seemed you focused too much on offense and not pitching. And this could have been from underachieving pitching. I really didn't look at your pitchers. Anyways I hope you stay and look at it this way, if it were easy it wouldn't be fun.
Posts: 1396
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:17 pm

Re: Post Washington

Post by frankum »

todd999430 wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 5:55 pm Frankum - What's your opinion on NOT taking an A+ 21 year old pitcher with the 1st pick in the draft because they have C endurance?
A 21 year old A+ overall player not going first pick was wild
Posts: 418
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:15 am
Location: Philadelphia

Re: Post Washington

Post by fentuzler47 »

Bought. Taking my 3rd stab at this league.
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