start the season facing 18 straight rhp

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maxthesax
Posts: 279
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:09 pm

start the season facing 18 straight rhp

Post by maxthesax »

I knew that the league was trending that way, but this is ridiculous! there are only 9 lhp out of 40 and Balt has 4 of em…. so tell me how this simulates real life again.....
mhollidaze
Posts: 439
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:26 pm
Location: SoCal/BajaCa

Re: start the season facing 18 straight rhp

Post by mhollidaze »

I know there are more righties than lefties in arms for MLB, not sure the ratio. As for batters I would imagine it's almost equal because of switch hitting. In my other league the BWL I have 3 out of 5 lefty starters in my rotation.

I would like to see Sim produce the first ambidextrous pitcher like Pat Venditte on the Dodgers. I wonder if he would pitch right against rhb and left against lhb automatically?
spicoli306
Posts: 428
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:28 pm

Re: start the season facing 18 straight rhp

Post by spicoli306 »

I was all set to jump into the argument with you, but now that I've looked at most of the data I have, I'm not quite sure if there really is a bias against Left-handed pitchers (or rather if there is, it is because of the fact that RHP will just inherently have the matchup advantage against more hitters).

Not that this is always possible, but have you considered tweaking your lineup to better account for the overabundance of RHP? This was something I tried to do early in my ownership of my 1st Dynasty League. 3 things I tried to do:
1. Get hitters that have great ratings against RHP.
2. Change the dimensions of my stadium to have a shorter porch in Right Field and more room in Center & Left.
3. Try to draft the best LHP because I assumed like you that the best were going undrafted/undeveloped because of the fact that hitting against RHP is more important.

Here are the problems:

1. Everybody is trying to get hitters that are strong against RHP. The reality is that CvR/PvR is the most important aspect of whether a hitter is going to be successful. Plus, the LH batters are typically at least passable against LHP by the end of their improvements. In fact, I've seen many times when a LHB ends up with better ratings against LHP than against RHP, despite their grades being lopsided when they were created. It's one of those annoying parts of SimD. Players inevitably improve in ways that diminish initial areas of weaknesses (i.e. speed, defense, hitting vLH).

2. Does this result in a quantifiable difference? I don't think so. I've had quite a few great LHB/switch-hitters that haven't seemed to have noticeable advantages when hitting at home. Sure, the numbers of hitters tend to be better, but that kind of difference could very easily be explained by Admin's "home bonus" rule where Home team hitters get slight ratings bumps and Home team pitchers get slight ratings bumps.

3. Also very hard to do. If a LHP is good, he will get drafted. It's not like owners are boycotting Leftys. Unfortunately, the ratio of RHP to LHP created in the draft is probably close to that in MLB (25-30%). Factoring in that SimDynasty makes it impossible to have LHP specialists for matchups, or that SimDynasty shows no benefit from having a rotation that goes Righty/Lefty/Righty/Lefty, or that in SimDynasty LH batters tend to not be automatic outs against LHP like more than a handful typically are in real MLB, and the whole endeavor seems to be even more fruitless. Also frustrating, most of the decent hitters that are waiver wire fodder tend to be guys who struggle against RHP, but have value against LHP. Not that a team is going to pick up a bunch of scrubs to hit against your Lefties, but it can be relatively simple to fill your bench with some platoon hitters that can replace the worst of your Left-handed batters.

Instead, I'll point out some of the easily identifiable times you might have made a reach on a LHP when an equally/slightly-less valuable RHP was available. To me, that shows that you might need to just drop your valuations of LHP a bit more. Not saying you just ignore all LHP. If a LHP is created in the next draft and is C+/B+ at age 18 OS but happens to be a LHP, you still need to jump on him instead of taking a C/C 18OS RHP. I look at it a lot like how I look at health in this game: meaningful, but more as a tie-breaker.

Here are a few choices I think you might have overvalued:

1) Most recently, Harley Quinn in 2037 with #12. Not a problem being a Lefty, of course. More of a problem of low ceiling. I think even with max developing + good luck, Quinn's best hope is as a reliever that grades out as a A+/B. You can try to max him out in the Minors (OS ages 22-24), giving him enough Cps to gain say maybe 15 points? in both Velocity and Control. That would make him OS25 as an A+/B pitcher. At that point, he's likely 100 max velocity and straining to catch improves in Control due to the fact that he's mid-A- Overall. A+/B isn't a great pitcher. Add in the fact that a D- Endurance means he will be unable to contribute as much in his prime, and I just don't think he was a good pick.

Who I would have picked? The guy I took at 14, LHP Skip McCurdy, who I expect to max out at A-/A-, but close to A/A overall. He'll require more developing, but he'll be able to get 250IP as a starter in his prime and should be good enough to justify having the disadvantage of being a lefty. Or even better IMO, Honus Henderson who was available at #12 for you. Henderson is exactly the type of player I mentioned in #1 of my strategies to combat RHP overload. D+/C- looks bad right now versus LHP, but given proper development, that could easily be B+/A- vLHP. Against RHP, I would expect Henderson to end up going from C/C+ to a floor of A-/A. Combine that with A+ "eventual" speed and you have an All-Star Centerfielder with A+ health.

2) Easy Eddie Fisk vs. Harry St.Claire
I didn't even plan this, but it really illuminates why LH pitchers are just inherently less valuable than RH pitchers. Some of the difference I will assume is because of the inferior hitting in the NL compared to the superior hitting in the AL. However, it is hard to not notice the fact that a B+/A- RH starter (#15 in 2026) with a career WHIP (1.26) and a career ERA (3.97) has outperformed a A/A- LH starter (#14 in 2026) with a career WHIP (1.33) and a career ERA (4.16). St.Claire is 2 years younger than Fisk, so I could definitely see those figures moving closer together by the end of their careers. However, I'd say a lot of Fisk's advantage is because of his Right-handedness. Check out his Splits: 909 IP vs. LHB with a 1.31 WHIP/ 882 IP vs. RHB with a 1.20 WHIP. Even though he has faced more LHB than RHB, it hasn't been enough to equate to a significant WHIP drop. On the other hand, St.Claire's Splits: 379 IP vs. LHB with a 1.17 WHIP/ 786 IP vs. RHB with a 1.42 WHIP. Basically, St.Claire has to face twice as many RHB. That overabundance has made the fact that RH hitters hit him very well even more problematic.

I'm not saying it's fair. What I'm saying is that it's the fact of the programming. Hence, why most owners fill their rotations with RHP. Why get great LHP when mediocre RHP can do just as well? Sad, but true.

Hope this helps. Not trying to be contrarian or argumentative.

-Michael
spicoli306
Posts: 428
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:28 pm

Re: start the season facing 18 straight rhp

Post by spicoli306 »

mhollidaze wrote: Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:10 pm I know there are more righties than lefties in arms for MLB, not sure the ratio. As for batters I would imagine it's almost equal because of switch hitting. In my other league the BWL I have 3 out of 5 lefty starters in my rotation.

I would like to see Sim produce the first ambidextrous pitcher like Pat Venditte on the Dodgers. I wonder if he would pitch right against rhb and left against lhb automatically?
And where are all the Shohei Ohtani's in SimDynasty??? HuuuuuuHHHH?!??!?!? This game needs to get with the times!!!!!

This is sarcastic in case anyone was wondering. Not that Venditte isn't an awesome story, but I wonder if his numbers would really be that different if he pitched as a LHP all the time. He seems to be great vs. LHB while only decent vs. RHB. Too small of a sample size to really analyze, but I'm just not quite sure his ambidextrous-ness is necessary (especially considering he's basically been used like a LOOGY by Roberts this year).
maxthesax
Posts: 279
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:09 pm

Re: start the season facing 18 straight rhp

Post by maxthesax »

This is sarcastic in case anyone was wondering. Not that Venditte isn't an awesome story, but I wonder if his numbers would really be that different if he pitched as a LHP all the time. He seems to be great vs. LHB while only decent vs. RHB. Too small of a sample size to really analyze, but I'm just not quite sure his ambidextrous-ness is necessary (especially considering he's basically been used like a LOOGY by Roberts this year).

back in the 60's the Giants had an ambidextrous pitcher - Matsamuri Murakami - I believe they actually had to put rules in place limiting what he could or could not do (like he had to finish facing a hitter using the same arm he started with). It sure limited pinch hitting against him for sure. He wasn't all that successful, and due to homesickness returned to Japan after a season (the 60's was a different time, for sure), but I do believe he was the first switch pitcher.
maxthesax
Posts: 279
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:09 pm

Re: start the season facing 18 straight rhp

Post by maxthesax »

spicoli306 wrote: Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:27 am I was all set to jump into the argument with you, but now that I've looked at most of the data I have, I'm not quite sure if there really is a bias against Left-handed pitchers (or rather if there is, it is because of the fact that RHP will just inherently have the matchup advantage against more hitters).

Not that this is always possible, but have you considered tweaking your lineup to better account for the overabundance of RHP? This was something I tried to do early in my ownership of my 1st Dynasty League. 3 things I tried to do:
1. Get hitters that have great ratings against RHP.
2. Change the dimensions of my stadium to have a shorter porch in Right Field and more room in Center & Left.
3. Try to draft the best LHP because I assumed like you that the best were going undrafted/undeveloped because of the fact that hitting against RHP is more important.

Here are the problems:

1. Everybody is trying to get hitters that are strong against RHP. The reality is that CvR/PvR is the most important aspect of whether a hitter is going to be successful. Plus, the LH batters are typically at least passable against LHP by the end of their improvements. In fact, I've seen many times when a LHB ends up with better ratings against LHP than against RHP, despite their grades being lopsided when they were created. It's one of those annoying parts of SimD. Players inevitably improve in ways that diminish initial areas of weaknesses (i.e. speed, defense, hitting vLH).

2. Does this result in a quantifiable difference? I don't think so. I've had quite a few great LHB/switch-hitters that haven't seemed to have noticeable advantages when hitting at home. Sure, the numbers of hitters tend to be better, but that kind of difference could very easily be explained by Admin's "home bonus" rule where Home team hitters get slight ratings bumps and Home team pitchers get slight ratings bumps.

3. Also very hard to do. If a LHP is good, he will get drafted. It's not like owners are boycotting Leftys. Unfortunately, the ratio of RHP to LHP created in the draft is probably close to that in MLB (25-30%). Factoring in that SimDynasty makes it impossible to have LHP specialists for matchups, or that SimDynasty shows no benefit from having a rotation that goes Righty/Lefty/Righty/Lefty, or that in SimDynasty LH batters tend to not be automatic outs against LHP like more than a handful typically are in real MLB, and the whole endeavor seems to be even more fruitless. Also frustrating, most of the decent hitters that are waiver wire fodder tend to be guys who struggle against RHP, but have value against LHP. Not that a team is going to pick up a bunch of scrubs to hit against your Lefties, but it can be relatively simple to fill your bench with some platoon hitters that can replace the worst of your Left-handed batters.

Instead, I'll point out some of the easily identifiable times you might have made a reach on a LHP when an equally/slightly-less valuable RHP was available. To me, that shows that you might need to just drop your valuations of LHP a bit more. Not saying you just ignore all LHP. If a LHP is created in the next draft and is C+/B+ at age 18 OS but happens to be a LHP, you still need to jump on him instead of taking a C/C 18OS RHP. I look at it a lot like how I look at health in this game: meaningful, but more as a tie-breaker.

Here are a few choices I think you might have overvalued:

1) Most recently, Harley Quinn in 2037 with #12. Not a problem being a Lefty, of course. More of a problem of low ceiling. I think even with max developing + good luck, Quinn's best hope is as a reliever that grades out as a A+/B. You can try to max him out in the Minors (OS ages 22-24), giving him enough Cps to gain say maybe 15 points? in both Velocity and Control. That would make him OS25 as an A+/B pitcher. At that point, he's likely 100 max velocity and straining to catch improves in Control due to the fact that he's mid-A- Overall. A+/B isn't a great pitcher. Add in the fact that a D- Endurance means he will be unable to contribute as much in his prime, and I just don't think he was a good pick.

Who I would have picked? The guy I took at 14, LHP Skip McCurdy, who I expect to max out at A-/A-, but close to A/A overall. He'll require more developing, but he'll be able to get 250IP as a starter in his prime and should be good enough to justify having the disadvantage of being a lefty. Or even better IMO, Honus Henderson who was available at #12 for you. Henderson is exactly the type of player I mentioned in #1 of my strategies to combat RHP overload. D+/C- looks bad right now versus LHP, but given proper development, that could easily be B+/A- vLHP. Against RHP, I would expect Henderson to end up going from C/C+ to a floor of A-/A. Combine that with A+ "eventual" speed and you have an All-Star Centerfielder with A+ health.

2) Easy Eddie Fisk vs. Harry St.Claire
I didn't even plan this, but it really illuminates why LH pitchers are just inherently less valuable than RH pitchers. Some of the difference I will assume is because of the inferior hitting in the NL compared to the superior hitting in the AL. However, it is hard to not notice the fact that a B+/A- RH starter (#15 in 2026) with a career WHIP (1.26) and a career ERA (3.97) has outperformed a A/A- LH starter (#14 in 2026) with a career WHIP (1.33) and a career ERA (4.16). St.Claire is 2 years younger than Fisk, so I could definitely see those figures moving closer together by the end of their careers. However, I'd say a lot of Fisk's advantage is because of his Right-handedness. Check out his Splits: 909 IP vs. LHB with a 1.31 WHIP/ 882 IP vs. RHB with a 1.20 WHIP. Even though he has faced more LHB than RHB, it hasn't been enough to equate to a significant WHIP drop. On the other hand, St.Claire's Splits: 379 IP vs. LHB with a 1.17 WHIP/ 786 IP vs. RHB with a 1.42 WHIP. Basically, St.Claire has to face twice as many RHB. That overabundance has made the fact that RH hitters hit him very well even more problematic.

I'm not saying it's fair. What I'm saying is that it's the fact of the programming. Hence, why most owners fill their rotations with RHP. Why get great LHP when mediocre RHP can do just as well? Sad, but true.

Hope this helps. Not trying to be contrarian or argumentative.

-Michael

I don't think it's anything nefarious like managers not choosing LHP due to being at a disadvantage - no, I think it's far more simple than that - SD simply hasn't made any LHP available to draft (or at least not any that are draft worthy, regardless of any manager bias).

as far as your assesment of Quinn vs the two players you mentioned - I was drafting for need, so placed more value on Quinn regardless of his less than stellar stamina (the two players you pointed out were just a couple of steps lower in my ratings) - I will more than likely be proven wrong, as I appear to be in regarding LHP as equal to RHP (your analysis is being born out thus far this season as my lefties are getting creamed, even though they improved ratings wise from last season). sigh.... (I know I should be drafting solely for the best player available, but since trading seems to be on life support... ah, but that's another issue entirely).
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