Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

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Covid18
Posts: 382
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:55 pm
Location: Tejas

Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

Post by Covid18 »

Exhibit A+:

http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mo ... d=13423893

He's A+ overall rating. So please spare me the "he may be low in his grades." Dude is A+/A, A+ overall, he should be DOMINANT, shouldn't he? He's been overall A rated for 4 seasons now, and for at least of the last 2 seasons, he's been the highest rated pitcher in our league. But he's not even the best pitcher on his own team...

http://www.simdynasty.com/rosterp.jsp?teamid=140166

I tried him as a closer - 18 saves and 10 blown with a mid 3 ERA. Yes, he's made 3 all-star teams, but was never a contender for the CY, finishing out of the top 5 every year. He's not young. So I moved him to SP, and he closed last season well. Then, game 6 of the NLCS, he walks 10 guys!!! In 4 1/3 innings, no less.

http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id ... s=playoffs

Now, I know great pitchers get shelled in the post season sometimes, but TEN WALKS??? This is beyond ridiculous. I wouldn't mind if he gave up 10 HITS, because he throws strikes. But for him to go Steve Blass/Rick Ankiel and lose all semblance of control?

I'm extremely frustrated. I bought this team after it lost 100 games for 15 straight seasons and never made the playoffs. I was looking forward to these young high draft picks becoming stars. We made the postseason last year, and had a 3-2 lead. Game 6, this guy on the hill. He pitches a game a B-/B pitcher would be ashamed of. Game 7, ABE sends a B speed runner with 2 outs in the 9th against a RF with a A+ arm. He gets thrown out, ending a 9th inning rally. This after coaxing my A range LF into a 2 base error scoring 3 runs earlier in the game.

I know "bad beats" are legion, but this is getting ridiculous. Was I wrong to expect skilled players to actually play with skill? Or is this game like playing a slot machine?
If only Spec Richardson had never been the Astros GM...
gannable
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:32 am

Re: Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

Post by gannable »

join the branch rickey league.. you'll be more frustrated.

my team has had the best hitting and pitching grades, missed the playoffs last year, could miss again this season.
Meanwhile, a team that has nothing special as grades never losers.

you can have my team in that league if u want it
MDorf
Posts: 880
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:05 pm

Re: Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

Post by MDorf »

A fair amount of that could be the result of settings. Using a C+ endurance pitcher as a starter will likely lead to an inflated ERA depending on when you have them get pulled for performance reasons. He can have a shutout through 6 and give up 3 or 4 runs in the 7th as he tires. My best relievers frequently blow a lot of saves as well. I have them as the first one in all non-blowouts which results in a lot of wins and a lot of blown saves. You say you put him at closer, but his numbers don't really indicate a true closer usage. He pitched a lot of innings to only have 18 saves and 10 blown. It looks more like what my top reliever's numbers look like when I put him as first in.
Covid18
Posts: 382
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:55 pm
Location: Tejas

Re: Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

Post by Covid18 »

MDorf wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:48 am A fair amount of that could be the result of settings. Using a C+ endurance pitcher as a starter will likely lead to an inflated ERA depending on when you have them get pulled for performance reasons. He can have a shutout through 6 and give up 3 or 4 runs in the 7th as he tires. My best relievers frequently blow a lot of saves as well. I have them as the first one in all non-blowouts which results in a lot of wins and a lot of blown saves. You say you put him at closer, but his numbers don't really indicate a true closer usage. He pitched a lot of innings to only have 18 saves and 10 blown. It looks more like what my top reliever's numbers look like when I put him as first in.
Yes, he is set as "closer" but I don't use the closer rule. I use him like you do.

I take out my SPs as soon as they tire. He is averaging less than 6 innings per start.

I appreciate your feedback, and I understand you. My main question is, shouldn't an A+ overall pitcher be having seasons like Greg Maddux or Pedro or Tom Seaver in their primes? Truly great pitchers have sensational ERAs in their prime, regardless of the level of talent on their teams (Steve Carlton 1972, Roger Clemens late 80's early 90's, Nolan Ryan with those horrible Angels teams, etc)? Bad teams may lead to lots of losses for them, but their rate stats and other counting stats remained great. And 10 walks for a guy with mid-A ctrl?

I'm trying to understand better how to grade pitchers, and what my expectations should be. I've been expecting Jensen to be the best pitcher in the NL for the last 3 seasons. But if the highest grades don't cause this, what does?
If only Spec Richardson had never been the Astros GM...
MDorf
Posts: 880
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:05 pm

Re: Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

Post by MDorf »

The short answer is yes they should. There will be some anomalies, and system 3 development that you are in will result in worse numbers as there are more good hitters, but generally he should be posting an ERA at least less than 3. It can be frustrating as the sim frequently doesn't go as we hope, but it is still a simulation based on ratings.
Covid18
Posts: 382
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:55 pm
Location: Tejas

Re: Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

Post by Covid18 »

MDorf wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:55 am The short answer is yes they should. There will be some anomalies, and system 3 development that you are in will result in worse numbers as there are more good hitters, but generally he should be posting an ERA at least less than 3. It can be frustrating as the sim frequently doesn't go as we hope, but it is still a simulation based on ratings.
Yup... he's made 3 all-star teams by age 28, so it's not like he's horrible. I've just expected him to break through and have a Cy Young contender year, and blow away the competition.

And now that the team is a contender, my desire is for him to go 25-3 with a 1.89 ERA... :lol: :D :lol:
If only Spec Richardson had never been the Astros GM...
Covid18
Posts: 382
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:55 pm
Location: Tejas

Re: Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

Post by Covid18 »

AND... we lose again with him on the hill. He walks 5 guys in 5 innings.

This is ridiculous.

http://www.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp? ... &cityid=29

And against THAT team??? A team with very low contact grades up and down the lineup? No offense to his team, but that's a weak lineup, and the team won 50 games last year. THIS is why I'm frustrated. Look at his game log... the teams that I've lost to with him pitching are the 3 worst teams in the NL.

I wouldn't complain if he was getting beaten by good teams, but for him not to dominate bad teams?
If only Spec Richardson had never been the Astros GM...
WillyD
Posts: 2894
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:29 pm
Location: New England

Re: Same old complaint - great grades, NOT great results

Post by WillyD »

System 3 is the main issue here. In a system 5 league, he's probably pitching to your expectations most seasons.

One thing I do in system 3 leagues is to compare him to his peers, and not to my expectations. If he's not in the top 5 in ERA by the end of the season, then's he's probably having a bad season. If he has a 3.00 ERA, but is #1 in the league, then you know the hitting talent is on the high side.

Good to double check your settings, stadium, and defense too. All of these could be factors in his statistical performance.
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