Player Slump

Owner to Owner help and advice
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Vytron
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Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:27 am

Re: Player Slump

Post by Vytron »

WillyD wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:30 pm Did you check for that?
Common sense, I didn't need to check for that because if that was the case he'd have complained about many players, but it's only about this one.
WillyD wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:30 pm but what about the years a player plays above his talent level?
I posted a player that did just that on the post you quoted, C+ contact / B+ Power performing like some B/A for 2 seasons in a row. It supports my point about bad trends, though.
WillyD wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:30 pmI don't think you understand how random numbers work.
I do, I have worked on the mechanics of 3 baseball games that used different way to decide outcomes. One used cards from a shuffled deck, another used rotating numbers printed on the cards, and the other used dice. The results were finetuned for the way randomness works, allowing for very strange outcomes to be really rare, but eventually happen.

I can tell you that the way ABE behaves looks like the first case, if you bought many card decks, shuffled all of the cards, and recreated them, you'd end up with some bad decks where the bad cards accumulated and good decks where the good cards accumulated. If a player with great stats gets assigned a bad deck he's going to have a bad season. If he gets assigned a new deck at the start of the next season he's unlikely to get another bad deck again. This is how ABE behaves.

There's nothing wrong with that but admin told us he just programmed more than 1000 outcomes that could happen at each at bat, and their likelihood depends on the stats of the pitcher and the batter and of all the other players on the field, and on the bases, and each at bat is computed individually from everything else, like throwing dice.

I had to study the mechanics of games like Strat-O-Matic baseball, Out of the Park Baseball, Dynasty League Baseball, History Maker Baseball and others for my work, and on those a great player can have a bad game or two, or a bad player can have a great game or two, but none of them had an entire year of games like that, and if they do, it's because the game has implemented slump/hot mechanics and they were unlucky, you could see the reason.

ABE doesn't have an explanation for what happens, so it looks bugged, the OP and others are just going to quit when they find out it's all because of the bad randomness and they can't do anything about it, they can use the GM thing to build the team with the best offense and defense and not even make it to the playoffs. Who wins the world series is out of our control.
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bygmester
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Re: Player Slump

Post by bygmester »

Hey Vytron, I've been watching you and Willy joust on the message board for a few months now so I decided to look up your owner card to see how good of a player you actually are. One season.... that's it? It seems to me you spend more time arguing on the message board than actually playing.

-bygmester
“Every strike brings me closer to the next home run.”
-George Herman "Babe" Ruth
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Vytron
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Re: Player Slump

Post by Vytron »

bygmester wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:41 pm One season.... that's it?
Nah, I have more experience than WillyD, but it's all on trial leagues, all the things I do are deleted after three months. And that league I played that I paid for was one of the worst experiences of my life. No kidding. But I guess I haven't had many bad experiences in my life. But everything was going good, except all those things on the paid league, I think I need amnesia pills.

But bring it on! I don't think WillyD could stand a chance in trial leagues, I think I can beat him with all the experience I've accumulated, trial leagues are the meat and potatoes of the site, for all the things it has going the hardest thing is the initial draft, I think it'd take WillyD at least 6 attempts to be able to draft a good team, though he'd need to join a trial league with good owners, not one where the defaults win.
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bygmester
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Re: Player Slump

Post by bygmester »

The only leagues that actually count are the ones you pay for. To me this is like a t-ball player telling what somebody in the major leagues what to do. I encourage you to join a actual league and become a major league ball player like the rest of us.

-bygmester
“Every strike brings me closer to the next home run.”
-George Herman "Babe" Ruth
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Vytron
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Re: Player Slump

Post by Vytron »

bygmester wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:04 pm The only leagues that actually count are the ones you pay for.
Who's keeping score? The only leagues that actually count are trial leagues, all those people are wasting their time and money, but it's a necessary evil to support the site.
bygmester wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:04 pm To me this is like a t-ball player telling what somebody in the major leagues what to do.
Except if they played together the t-ball player would destroy the major leaguer.
bygmester wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:04 pm I encourage you to join a actual league and become a major league ball player like the rest of us.


Do you form a circle and j*** each other too? No thanks.

Look, trial leagues are like that delicious cake that your grandma made you and you went to see every week, and was the greatest dessert of your childhood. Paid leagues is like those commercially made cakes that are very pricey and people buy for their weddings because they have a fancy name. Those don't hold a candle to the other one, or maybe you needed a better grandma.

If you tried to play in a trial league you'd not even make it to the playoffs on your first try, it's like Michael Jordan goes down the street and gets humiliated by the little girls at baskeball, he just assumed he could beat them, but all his career and achievements didn't matter, what matters is the NOW.

The only game that counts is the one you're in.
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bygmester
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Re: Player Slump

Post by bygmester »

There's this thing called an owner card That's what keeps score. I know you're new to this site maybe you should check it out.

And by the way I don't think you realize what meat and potatoes means. Meat and potatoes give the human body nourishment. You know what nourishes this site? Money. If everyone took your route there would be no game to play because no one would make any money.

I'm going to say it again, I'm encouraging you to join a real league. Join a league with Willy, I jump at the chance to prove someone who I obviously don't like, wrong. I'm not sure what You're afraid of.

-bygmester
“Every strike brings me closer to the next home run.”
-George Herman "Babe" Ruth
GoYanksGo
Posts: 181
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:38 pm

Re: Player Slump

Post by GoYanksGo »

I'm pretty unexperienced by this site's standards (only 12 seasons under my belt), but I felt the need to weigh in here. First, Vytron I dispute your claim that the player you posted played way above their ratings. Evil Queen was C+/B+ against righties, and in the picture where you posted their splits, they're terrible against right-handed pitching all three years. The only "unexpectedly" good season was 1951 against lefties, but A) that was over a sample of only 63 ABs and B) they're B-/A against lefties, which isn't amazing but also not terrible. Certainly not C+/B+.

Second, I don't think the way you've described ABE as working (if true) is a bad thing. If there was no randomness, the team with the best graded players would win every year and that wouldn't be fun nor is it how real sports work. The Patriots went 16-0 and lost the Super Bowl. The Mariners set the all time win record in 2001 and didn't even make the World Series. It happens.

Lastly, on the pay vs. trial league debate -- I've done both and I definitely think pay leagues are more challenging and more fun. You're obviously entitled to your own opinion and are free to continue playing in Trial leagues if that's what you like more, but it's just not true that it's more challenging. Beyond the fact that there tend to be almost exclusively unexperienced owners in trial leagues, the only path to winning basically is the initial draft and then hoping for luck over the span of an incredibly small 81 game sample size. It's far more difficult to build a sustained winner in a pay league with the amateur draft every year, developing players through your minors, and deciding when to go all in on big trades (obviously there are trades in trial leagues too, but no one is going to blow it all up and rebuild when it's only 3 half seasons, so there tends to be fewer big talent players available on the trade market). I also prefer 24 team leagues to 16 teamers since it more closely resembles real life, which also adds in an additional obstacle even if you do make the playoffs, now you have to win three rounds to win the WS, not just two. Not trying to convince you to like pay leagues better or even to join one -- keep playing Trial leagues if you like them better -- but I've played both and pay leagues are definitely the majors to the Trial league's minors.

Just my two cents.
eragon
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Re: Player Slump

Post by eragon »

Vytron wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:18 pm The only leagues that actually count are trial leagues
It's *literally* the opposite.
WillyD
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Location: New England

Re: Player Slump

Post by WillyD »

Vytron wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:54 pm
bygmester wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:41 pm One season.... that's it?
But bring it on! I don't think WillyD could stand a chance in trial leagues, I think I can beat him with all the experience I've accumulated, trial leagues are the meat and potatoes of the site, for all the things it has going the hardest thing is the initial draft, I think it'd take WillyD at least 6 attempts to be able to draft a good team, though he'd need to join a trial league with good owners, not one where the defaults win.
LOL

My first trial league was April of 2008. My first Trial league title was April 2008. True Story.
WillyD
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Location: New England

Re: Player Slump

Post by WillyD »

bygmester wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:23 pm There's this thing called an owner card That's what keeps score. I know you're new to this site maybe you should check it out.

And by the way I don't think you realize what meat and potatoes means. Meat and potatoes give the human body nourishment. You know what nourishes this site? Money. If everyone took your route there would be no game to play because no one would make any money.

I'm going to say it again, I'm encouraging you to join a real league. Join a league with Willy, I jump at the chance to prove someone who I obviously don't like, wrong. I'm not sure what You're afraid of.

-bygmester
Well said!
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