Stealing Settings

[mattyb5000]

My teams only steal with two outs, as the risk/reward is much more in my favor then. I'm very aggressive about it, even when facing A-rated catchers, and average 75% success with A+ speed and 70% with A speed.

Do you go aggressively with 2 outs with only your fastest guys who have A or A+ speed? Or do you go aggressive all the way down the line regardless of speed?

[allenciox]

I actually think when it comes to stealing, your biggest bang for your buck is to only steal 2nd base (not third) and I actually think it is better to do it with less than 2 outs since that removes double-play possibility. If you only steal with 2 outs that takes out one of the advantages of a stolen base.
A base stolen with no outs can sometimes cause that runner to score even with no other hits in the inning. For example, batter 1 walks, then steals second. If batter 2 grounds out to 2nd base or 1st base, the runner will usually move to third. Then he can score with a grounder or a sac fly.

[loonatic]

I agree that stealing 3rd isn't worth the risk.

As for stealing second, I plugged in the numbers from MLB run expectancy charts, which provide average expected runs in an inning if the runner stays on first (doesn't attempt to steal), steals second, or gets caught trying to steal second. This helps identify the break-even point where the reward exceeds the risk.

Using the 2018 MLB charts:
With 0 outs the break-even point is 74% stealing success
With 1 out the break-even point is 75%
With 2 outs the break-even is 70%

Using the 2017 MLB charts:
With 0 outs the break-even point is 74%
With 1 out the break-even point is 74%
With 2 outs the break-even is 71%

Of course Sim Dynasty is a simulation, and the run expectancies may differ from the MLB. But I think the general idea is that getting caught stealing with 0 outs has a much greater opportunity cost (reducing the probability of a big rally), while 2-out rallies are much less common.

[kidspeed]

The comment from ratman is right on. I still play baseball and have for over 20 years. I'm a rampant base stealer, and I can confirm that I mostly am stealing off the pitcher. Generally, I'm only weighing my decision of whether or not to steal off the catcher more heavily then the pitcher is if he has a noodle arm.

[Rogue22]

Also since there are a lot less homeruns in this simulation then MLB the steal % to break even is slightly lower.