System 5

Owner to Owner help and advice
ratman44
Posts: 1480
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:35 am

System 5

Post by ratman44 »

Is there some magic formula to get your guys IC chances.

This is the 3rd year in a row on my one team where a guy with 13 or more CP's is going to end up with less than 50 IC's


Last year my 13 got only 46, the year before my 14 got only 50. I have 18 games to go and my #1 overall pick who is 17 has 47 chances that is it while having 15 CPs on him the whole year. Unless he gets a chance a game over the next 18 games he is basically being screwed.


What am I doing wrong? according to the chart 13 is 65, 14 is 67, and 15 is 69, I got guys that aren't even in the zip code.

I only have 15 guys in my minors but it seems that the distribution that is occurring is not right.
meat1968
Posts: 466
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:06 am

Re: System 5

Post by meat1968 »

I was hoping that someone would have input on your question as I'm in the same boat. Then in the rare instance where I get some ICs for a minor league pitcher, they do nothing...

http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?pl ... d=12684943

For the most part, I'm not getting much over 50 or 60 either, but I got guys with 1-5 CPs getting 40...smh. I'd rather go back to the old system where I knew what I would get for each 5,5,5,3,2 player
ratman44
Posts: 1480
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:35 am

Re: System 5

Post by ratman44 »

This dude has had 15 CP's on him during his OS18 and OS19 season. At the time of this writing I have 6 games remaining in the OS19 season, but he only got 55 in OS18, now with 6 to go he has only 49.

http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=129 ... rimps=imps

I tried to keep my minor league stagnant this year. I did make one swap out of 2 OS22 pitchers to get 25 in the majors, but here is the breakdown with 6 to go vs end of year target with current deviation, showing position, overall grade plus a split breakdown for the pitchers showing that none of them are maxed out.

There are 24 IC's still available in the 6 games, I will if I have time edit or update this after the season ends.


CP 15 - Age 18 SP B- (A-/C) - 13 conv on 49 Chances vs 69 target (-20 to target)
CP 14 - Age 20 SP B (B+/B-) 8 conv on 73 chances vs 67 target (+6 to target)
CP 13 - Age 18 CF just turned B, - 45 conv on 60 chances vs 65 target (-5 to target)
CP 12 - Age 19 SS B- , 62 conv on 73 chances vs 61 target (+12 to target)
CP 11 - Age 18 RP B- (B+/C+) 11 conv on 51 chances vs 56 target (-5 to target)
CP 10 - Age 21 CF B+, 20 conv on 48 chances - 51 target (-3 to target)
*CP 9 - Age 21 RP B turned B+ (B+/B) 11 conv on 37 Chances
*CP 9 - Age 22 SP B (B+/B-) - 3 conv on 5 Chances vs 46 target (-4 to target) added together
CP 8 - Age 22 C B-, 25 conv on 39 chances vs 41 target (-2 to target)
CP 7 - Age 23 SP B- (C-/B+) - 6 conv on 31 chances vs 37 target (-6 to target)
CP 6 - Age 22 SP CF B-, 18 conv on 39 Chances vs 33 target (+6 to target)
CP 5 - Age 24 SP C+ (C/B) 9 conv on 38 chances vs 29 target (+9 to target)
CP 4 - Age 31 C - 3 conv on 22 chances vs 27 target (-5 to target)
CP 3 - Age 32 SP B - 1 conv on 19 Chances vs 25 target (-6-to target)
CP 2 - Age 31 SP B+ 1 conv on 24 chances vs 23 target (+1 to target)
CP 1 - Age 33 CF B-, 0 conv on 16 chances vs 21 target (-5 to target)


The bottom 6 guys net to the target, butI have no clue how the last 24 will be distributed and I don't get how the top guy is so far off. My CP 12 guy is up 12 which I am ok with but it just sucks you invest so much in a first overall pick and watch as he sits and rots. Even to assume he gets 1 a game the rest of the way he ends at 55 again. So he would end up 14 short, so 28 chances over 2 years, which in a normal distribution of a teenage pitcher is probably 5 improves. Then noting you get 73 chances on a 20 year old pitcher that started the season as a B- and he only converts 8 is pretty sour also.
MDorf
Posts: 2187
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:05 pm

Re: System 5

Post by MDorf »

Unfortunately, you have simply been unlucky. It is 100% about probability and chance. The more CP's you have on a guy, the better chance he has of getting each IC. It doesn't mean he will get more, just that he has a better chance of getting each one. The only thing you can do is try not to get too frustrated by it, because there isn't anything you can do to increase the odds. It is no different than your players performing better or worse than their ratings indicate they should.
ratman44
Posts: 1480
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:35 am

Re: System 5

Post by ratman44 »

I get that it’s completely random but for your 15 guy to miss by 20% in back to back seasons is absurd.

He ended up at 52 chances and that is why people leave this game and never come back.
Frunobulax
Posts: 240
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:24 pm

Re: System 5

Post by Frunobulax »

There was a bug where ICs were distributed evenly over all minor leaguers if you had not all CPs allocated. I remember I set up a trial league team specifically for this, back in the system 2 days. I would allocate 15 CPs with 5CPs on 2 guys, and those 2 averaged just 30 ICs per season just as all the other players. (I submitted 3 bug reports over the course of half a year, all of which were ignored.) I'm not sure if there is a similar issue with system 5 though.
meat1968
Posts: 466
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:06 am

Re: System 5

Post by meat1968 »

Something definitely is amiss. I've got better chances of getting ICs and conversions for a 21 y/o by bringing them up to the bigs, which was never the case back when we were using System 2. Thought this (Sys 5) would be better, but it's just more of a crap shoot. So now you're really relying on getting a guy conversions in his 23-25 years (offensively), which may alter how I approach the draft. Some leagues/teams are different.

I've tried to drop guys, tried moving players up to the majors then down to the minors...everything to slot them in a position where they'd get more ICs. It just doesn't work though. Very frustrating...
MDorf
Posts: 2187
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:05 pm

Re: System 5

Post by MDorf »

you guys are overthinking it. It is statistical chance. You can't outsmart it. Just because something is statistically more probable doesn't mean it will come to pass. The player with the most CPs is going to have the greatest chance to get each IC every time, period. My most recent full season in system 5:
15 CPs 68
14 69
13 55
12 77
11 52
10 52
9 38
8 35
7 31
6 34
5 25
4 32
3 32
2 27
1 19

It doesn't mean it is best to put 12 CPs on guys moving forward. If you have more than 15 guys on your roster, maybe it can mess things up. Otherwise, it is what it is.
ratman44
Posts: 1480
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:35 am

Re: System 5

Post by ratman44 »

It just frustrating as a person that knows real minor league baseball coaches, the #1 organizational prospect would never be left behind. So t put 15CP'on a guy then have him in back to back years get 55 and 52 it is extremely frustrating. That would never happen.
Hamilton2
Posts: 1838
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:56 pm

Re: System 5

Post by Hamilton2 »

ratman44 wrote: Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:20 pm It just frustrating as a person that knows real minor league baseball coaches, the #1 organizational prospect would never be left behind. So t put 15CP'on a guy then have him in back to back years get 55 and 52 it is extremely frustrating. That would never happen.
There are, by probability, about 10x more busts in mlb than in simD, even in variable development leagues. The difference for a pitcher converting 20% of I'd opportunities and missing 20 chances in back to back years is 8 total improvements. Split between velocity and control we are talking about a half letter grade (80 vs. 84 overall). That is a tiny variance. When you consider the impact that the lower grades have on the base improvement rate in the majors once promotion occurs the impact is even less.

In other words: this entire simulation is a giant random number generator. Statistical variance will happen. Someone else on your team benefited from your top prospects bad luck. With 15 players in your minors and full cp allocation the distribution of chances is a zero sum game.
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