Stolen Bases

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Admin
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Stolen Bases

Post by Admin »

I've made some changes in the code that should make steals of home possible. I expect there to be 7 or 8 attempts per season in a 24 team league with 2-3 actual successful steals of home. This assumes that 80% of owners have their Steal Home settings at Never Steal (the default) and the rest are using reasonable settings (Never or Conservative on 1 or 2 outs, and only stealing with the fastest players).

In most steals, the catcher's Arm is the main factor. Catcher Arm is of course irrelevant on steals of home. This may require some tinkering to change it to Pitcher Arm for steals of home, which is the actual stat (along with Catcher Range) used in the code. (Of course this quirk has gone unnoticed for 17 years because no steal of home has ever happened, near as I can tell. It is technically possible but looks like it will occur on average once every 64800000000 games.)

Please set your Steal Home settings as you would for a real team. If we don't see any, we can ramp everything to Aggressive on all teams at which point we should see them occur every handful of games.

Success rates with 0 or 1 outs will be pretty low. With 2 outs the chance of success goes up to about 1 in 3 for the most favorable situations. It might be a little weirder as the pitcher's arm isn't (I think) currently taken into account for the manager settings.

Anyway, if you have a game with a steal of home, please post a link.

Thanks!

Chris
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Re: Stolen Bases

Post by Admin »

OK, I've got it looking at Pitcher Arm rather than Catcher Arm for steals of home.

Chris
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Beanballs
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Re: Stolen Bases

Post by Beanballs »

Chris it doesn't look like todays beta games have run, should have started this morning...
The Land of Pleasant Living
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Re: Stolen Bases

Post by Admin »

Checking it out.

Chris
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femgo
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Re: Stolen Bases

Post by femgo »

Admin,

This is pretty cool that we can test steal of home.
I'll definitely change my settings like I would approach steal of home in a real life team.

Thanks for your work.
femgo
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Re: Stolen Bases

Post by femgo »

Admin,

One input from me: the setting - "when the pitcher is batting " I choose the option "never steal" but I think it would be usefull to steal home with 2 outs with the pitcher batting. That's the only situation I think it would be usefull to steal with the pitcher batting.

But the options for this setting is limited. Consider to add, at least the option: only steal home. Some people might think this a interesting option.
WillyD
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Re: Stolen Bases

Post by WillyD »

Admin wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:31 pm Checking it out.

Chris
The box scores in the playoffs aren't populating.
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Re: Stolen Bases

Post by Admin »

The box scores are fixed.

Femgo: Great idea. I'll see what I can do.

Chris
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Stealing home run amok

Post by Admin »

OK, this is definitely happening too often. According to the database there have been 34 attempts or steals of home in half a season. So clearly I have some math wrong somewhere. They're also successful 29.5% of the time so far which is a bit higher than I expected. (EDIT: Actually this success rate is on the money.)

On the other hand, more data means more to look at, so we'll turn this to our advantage. Here are links to all the games with steals/attempts:

http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5810871
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811496
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811498
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811499
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811545
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811555
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811563
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811601
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811625
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811733
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811860
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811868
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811489
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811481
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811465
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811065
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811151
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811258
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811339
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811363
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811376
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811913
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811414
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811404
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811507
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811884
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811451
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811861
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811068
http://beta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp ... id=5811835

Feel free to look through those and if anything looks out of place (other than the sheer number of them) let me know.

Chris
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