Do 2nd round picks ...

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AllenMac
Posts: 1346
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:08 pm

Do 2nd round picks ...

Post by AllenMac »

have any value in this league?

Or because of the generous mionr league improvement system, only 1st round picks, and really only the 1st ten picks or so really have any value?

There are quality 2nd round picks waived every season, and the waiver wire is filled with quality B+ overall rated twenty-somethings ... A rated players are really all that matter, right?

Your opinion solicited, and please provide examples of your opinion ...
simballerific
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:18 pm

Re: Do 2nd round picks ...

Post by simballerific »

Short answer: 2nd rounders have value.

I currently have multiple 2nd round picks and 3rd round picks and 4th round picks and waiver wire acquisitions developing in my minors. So value can be found just about everywhere. And in my most recent run of contention my major league roster had 8 or 9 waiver wire acquisitions.

I agree that I generally see one or two 2nd round picks waived soon after the draft takes place. Usually, those prospects are guys that I personally ranked outside the top 32. I usually rank the top 25-30, and rarely up to 45 prospects depending upon how deep the class is.

The development system we use has IIRC a 5 or 10% bust rate, so you do have to be prepared to move on from prospects, even those you drafted high, if they aren't converting. IMO, knowing went to be patient and when to cut a player is a combo of art and science and luck. For example I was sooooo close to cutting this guy(2nd round pick) right before his OS24 season. Glad I didn't, but he could have just as easily continued to convert below average, and be a waste of space in the minors for one last season before I cut him. Now he has a shot at developing into an A overall starter, or on the other end of the result spectrum he could just stop converting the rest of his career. http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id ... rimps=imps

Also because of the development system we use, if you put a C or C+ overall prospect with good splits in the minors for 7+ seasons, you most likely will end up with an A- overall or better player.

For example: http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mo ... d=13504553
I drafted this guy in the 4th round this season. He is OS22 and C overall. But if someone were to stick that guy in their minors for 8 seasons, they would very likely end up with an OS30 A- overall player that could platoon vs Rhp. This is assuming that he isn't a bust. Because I have better(from a raw talent, health, and how much runway they'll have once they develop into a major league contributor) prospects filling my minors, I waived him.


How I started understanding this devlopment system was I went and searched out players who were allstars who were drafted outside of the top 10. And then I looked at their IC development and past skills. This clued me into what the attributes of a developable prospect looked like on draft day, and then the kind of development that would be necessary to get them to be major league contributors.
todd999430
Posts: 2960
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:34 pm

Re: Do 2nd round picks ...

Post by todd999430 »

Everything Simba said.

Truthfully, the value of second round picks TO ME depend on the following conditions:

1) Am I contending or rebuilding? If I’m rebuilding, I probably have multiple 1st rounders incoming and very little room in my minors. If I’m contending, I’m more active on the WW and taking chances with certain players.

2) How good is the draft? If it has a few of those A- 30 year old players, a couple of 17 year olds could get shoved down to the 2nd round... and they’re possibly as good as the players taken in the top 8 sometimes.

3) Who owns the first round picks? If a glut of the 1st round picks are owned by non-San Diego type owners, there’s a good chance that the players I’d normally take in the 1st round late will be available in the 2nd round. Not everyone spends the time necessary on the draft.

4) What spot are the picks? I would have gladly taken Simba’s 2nd round pick this past draft as he got a top 10 player at spot 17. Rebuilding 2nd round picks are usually as good as late 1st rounders. Playoff 2nd rounders make it a bit harder to get value. Trading vets with mentoring value for early 2nd rounders is a solid strategy for both sides.

5) How lucky of drafter am I? If you get lucky, you get this.
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