1978 CDL team analysis

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Frunobulax
Posts: 240
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:24 pm

1978 CDL team analysis

Post by Frunobulax »

Image

Note: This was written before the draft and before any trades in 1978.

Playoff predictions:
1978: MIN over OAK, LAN over MON. WS: MIN over LAN.
1979: MIN over OAK, LAN over MON. WS: MIN over LAN.
1980: MIN over OAK, LAN over MON. WS: MIN over COL.
1981: MIN over TOR, LAN over MON. WS: MIN over COL.

A whole lot of boredom in those prediction. Minnesota is locked in at first place and their team will start to decline only in about 3 seasons. Oakland is the second strongest team in the AL, but a good deal behind the Mavs. Long term, Toronto, Chicago and the Navigators will fight for the crown once Minnesota steps down.

In the NL, both Los Angeles and Montreal are pretty much toe to toe, with Los Angeles getting the nod as the strongest team by a hair, and this won't change for a few seasons unless Colorado finds a way to crash the party.


AL East
=======

1. Minnesota
============
Minnesota dominates simply for the fact that they have the second best batting lineup, the best rotation and the best bullpen in the league. It would be a big surprise if they couldn't secure home field advantage for the playoffs. Even worse (well, worse for the rest of the league), none of their stars will decline this offseason, and a lot of them are still on the right side of OS30. Baltimore and Toronto can hope for a playoff spot.


2. Baltimore
============
Baltimore has quietly assembled a pretty good group of starting pitchers and has a solid batting lineup with a few good youngsters. A sound age structure will ensure that they are playoff contenders for several seasons at least. However, despite being the second strongest team in the AL east, advancing to the championship would be a major upset over Minnesota.


3. Toronto
==========
My Yellowjackets are finishing their rebuild. While the pitching staff is shaping up, 4 of their starting batters are still OS26 or younger. Pitching remains a bit shaky, with solid but not outstanding pitchers. We do have a shot at the playoffs, but getting past Minnesota would be a big surprise.


4. Chicago
==========
Chicago has a good young team that already has an outside shot at the playoffs, but will become much stronger in a couple of years. They could however use another elite starting pitcher if they want to become a truly dominant team.


5. New York
===========
The Navigators are in the middle of a rebuild and will draft high for a few more seasons. But they have already assembled some excellent young talent and will certainly become a very strong team once the rebuild is done.


6. Seattle
==========
Seattle is in the middle of a rebuild. They do have some good young players, but need to add a few more before they can turn this thing around.



AL West
=======
The AL West remains one of the weaker divisions in the league. Oakland is still the strongest team, but they couldn't capitalize on that last season where Washington took the division crown and forced them into an early matchup with Minnesota in the playoffs. They can get some revenge this season, as Washington once more looks to be the second strongest team.

1. Oakland
==========
Oakland has assembled a pretty good team. They have only one aging ace in McLeod, but the rest of the pitching staff is solid and they have a deep group of batters. Some aging players will be replaced by some youngsters, but overall this team will be going strong for several seasons.

2. Washington
=============
The Generals have a good team and won 97 games last season. However, some of their players are getting old and they will enter a rebuild soon. They do have the choice between making another run at the playoffs or breaking up the team and peddling their better players to speed up the inevitable rebuild.


3. Detroit
==========
A middle-of-the-pack team that has a few very good players (Reichert, Lane, Gubicza) but little depth, Detroit will need some luck to make it to the playoffs. Their minors look pretty bleak though (with the exception of Lyons), so maybe the best course of action would be add a couple of good players, which would give them a much better chance at a playoff spot. Obviously they could also go for a full rebuild if they want to sell their top players.


4. Anaheim
==========
The Twins have a pretty decent pitching staff, but their batting lineup is far from being a solid group. Some of the older pitchers could be traded for young batters, which would make the prognosis for the coming years a lot more favorable.


5. Cleveland
============
The Lumberjacks are in a rebuild, and will need to draft several good youngsters before they can think about returning to the playoffs.


6. Boston
=========
Boston is another team deep in rebuild, and currently the weakest team in the league. I do like some of their young talent, so fans should sit tight and wait for the rebuild to complete - it will take several more seasons, but this will eventually become a strong team.


NL East
=======

Incumbent champion Montreal and Colorado have a good shot at winning the division, with Cincy not far behind. The Royals do have the advantage of a younger team, giving them a shot at the ring for several seasons. The Red Dogs have already declared the start of their rebuild, which is a smart move given that their aging team had 1 or at most 2 more seasons before entering a free fall. Colorado will soon have to follow, but should have 1-2 more good seasons.

1. Montreal
===========
A good team with a lot of depth especially when it comes to starting pitchers, it's hard to find a weakness. Most starters are close to OS30, giving them several seasons with a shot to win another title.


2. Colorado
===========
The Storms rank 4th overall in the league, but will have to get past Montreal and Los Angeles if they want to win a ring. They have a fearsome batting lineup that ranks first in the league, and some pretty good pitchers. However, all of their best pitchers will decline this offseason and they don't have young pitchers that can step in, so this year is probably a make-or-break year for them. In any case we should see some high scoring games here.


3. Cincinnati
=============
The Red Dogs want to rebuild despite still ranking 4th in the NL. It will be interesting to see what happens if they don't get a lot of offers they like. A lot of their good players are OS33 and older though, so they could squeeze only 1-2 more seasons out of this team before the rebuild is inevitable. Salmon and Brownson are both young and some of the best young pitchers in the league, so some blockbuster trades could give really jump start their rebuild.


4. New York
===========
The Gentlemen are another team with some good players, but not enough to make a push for the playoffs. They have some decent young players, and we'll see what they can do in the upcoming drafts.


5. Pittsburgh
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The Crew Dogs are rebuilding and probably need a few more drafts to lay a solid foundation for the future.


6. Arizona
==========
Another team deep in rebuild, another team that needs a few more drafts.



NL West
========
A division dominated by the Trolley Dodgers, we may very well see a 110 win team that becomes the only team to go to the playoffs, as San Francisco and St. Louis looks weaker than Colorado, Cincinnati and New York from the NL East. Long term projections see LA dominating for a long time, with only Chicago emerging as a second good team in this division.

1. Los Angeles
==============
The Trolley Dodgers have a remarkable group of starting pitchers, with no less than 4 pitchers that would be #1 in a lot of other rotations. The batting group looks almost as strong, even though there isn't a lot depth here. The only question mark in the long-term planning is the catcher, as Bowler is already in decline and I don't see a championship caliber catcher lurking in the minors. But even with a mediocre catcher they will dominate the division for a long time.


2. San Francisco
================
San Francisco has some solid starting pitchers and some solid batters - to be precise, 3 solid SPs and 4 solid batters, which is half a team. Their minors look suspect, so maybe they should try to move some of those guys and start over.


3. St. Louis
============
If I look at the pitchers, I see a rebuilding team with a few solid vets and some very nice looking youngsters in the minors. If I look at the batters, I see only 2 young guys that could start on a playoff team down the road and a veteran lineup with a lot of holes. This team could still reach .500, but should focus on the rebuild.


4. Miami
========
Another team with some solid pitchers and some solid batters, but not enough to form a team. Another team that should peddle their vets to speed up the rebuild.


5. Chicago
==========
Deep in a rebuild, the batting lineup of the future is forming up while the pitching group needs some additions. Still, this looks like a team with a plan that should be in playoff contention a few years down the road if they can add some young pitchers.


6. San Diego
============
San Diego has entered a rebuild, and a long way to go. The roster has little assets that they can trade and their talent in the minors is limited, so I can't see anything but the fight for the #1 draft pick for several seasons.



=============================================================================================================================
The numbers are calculated fully automated by a little program I use, the analysis is done by hand obviously. A player has a numerical value for the current skills and the potential value (just like win shares, runs created/saved and so on) so that I can order them from best to worst. The ability to compare teams is a byproduct of this, but not really a focus. I do track player developments to some degree, so I have an idea where a player is in his grades.

The ranking algorithm is rather easy: I rank the current value of a player using linear weights - for pitchers its basically C1*CON + C2*VEL + C3*END with some adjustments for defense and health, with some constants C1, C2, C3, for batters I calculate batting power C1*CON + C2*PWR + C3*SPD, take 75% vsR and 25% vsL to get an overall batting power, and assign a bonus/penalty for defense and health.

For the pitchers, pick the best five pitchers with enough endurance to start as starters, but weigh them for the team rating as a #1, #2 and #3 starters will pitch more games than the #4 and #5 starters. The weight is 120% for the best 3, 90% for the 4th and 50% for the 5th starter. The "SPPlay" value is the "playoff strength" of the starters, where I consider only the top 4 starters, with the 4th starter at half weight (as the top 3 will start 6 of 7 playoff games). In the bullpen, I value the 4 best pitchers, with the best reliever (closer) getting 140%, the 2nd reliever 120%, and the other 2 guys 70%. (Personally, that's how I use my pitchers - 1-2 guys to handle all the close games, and the remaining pitchers usually don't pitch a whole lot, and only when the games are not close.)

For the batting value I choose the 8 best batters. I do not consider that a manager may sit players to develop younger ones or chooses players with good mentoring value over better players that are no good mentors. I do factor in defensive ratings - a team that has only C range, A+ arm guys will earn a steep fielding penalty at the 4 infield positions. (All considered, fielding will not change the ranking of a position player group significantly, unless you have really outstanding or really horrible fielders, in which case you might gain or lose a rating point, or two at the most.) 8 Batters are picked regardless of actual position. Essentially, I will choose the best catcher and the 7 strongest remaining players by considering their batting skills and adding a penalty or bonus for their average range+arm rating. (So I will always choose at least one catcher, but may start 3 catchers if they outrank the players from other positions.) Among the 7 non-catchers I will then choose the 4 players with the highest range for the infield, and penalize the team if their values are below certain thresholds (A- or or worse range at 1B, 2B and SS, B+ or worse Arm at SS, B+ or worse arm/range average at 3B) or award a small bonus for better values. For outfielders, arm is weighted higher than range, but the penalty for bad fielding is very small.

The values are normalized such that 100 would represent an average major leaguer in a system 3 league. A rating of 100 makes an average team, as you would expect. A team with a 105 average rating can usually expect 90-100 wins, depending on the competition in the league, a team with a 95 rating faces the threat of a 100 loss season.

The overall value of a team is 55% batting and defense, 35% starting pitchers and 10% bullpen.
Paladin1
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:13 am

Re: 1978 CDL team analysis

Post by Paladin1 »

Again, nice job and thanks for taking the time to do this! :D
MNRebel
Posts: 584
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:39 am

Re: 1978 CDL team analysis

Post by MNRebel »

Yes! Thank you for doing this. It is always one of the best reads of the year.
reddogs
Posts: 447
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:21 am

Re: 1978 CDL team analysis

Post by reddogs »

Thank you for the work you put in. A great read.
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