Playoff predictions:
1974: NYA over SEA, COL over STL. WS: NYA over COL.
1975: MIN over NYA, COL over CIN. WS: MIN over COL.
1976: MIN over NYA, COL over MON. WS: MIN over COL.
1977: MIN over BAL, MON over COL. WS: MIN over MON.
The AL East is still the powerhouse of the league, with the incumbent champion Seattle. But the NL groups are catching up.
In the AL, SEA and NYA seem to be again destined to win the division. But Minnesota is quickly morphing into the best team in the league, and might spoil the private party. Also Boston should not be discounted.
In the NL, COL, STL, CIN, SD and ARI are grouped closely together, and we will have a race for the playoff spots that might be decided on the last day of the season.
AL East
=======
1. New York Navigators
======================
The dominant New York team is getting a bit old, especially on the pitching side. I see them competing at a very high level for 3 more years, after which we'll see a sharp decline. But don't be fooled, this is still the best team in the league, and has a dominating group both in the batting lineup and in the bullpen.
2. Seattle Martians
===================
Seattle ranks again second overall in the league. But some key players have already reached OS34 or are close to reaching it, so Seattle will also have to rebuild soon. They will be in the mix for 2 more seasons, maybe 3 if ABE is smiling on them when handing out declines.
3.Minnesota Mavericks
=====================
The Mavericks are 3 overall in the league, completing a 1-2-3 group in the dominant AL East. As their key players are on average just 28 years old, they jump to #1 next year and I'll predict 3-4 world series titles within the next 10 years or so. 4 years from now my predictions have them a whopping 4 points stronger than the #2 team in the league.
4. Chicago Pale Hose
====================
Chicago has a nice batting group, but their rotation leaves a bit to be desired for a top end team. They do have some young good pitchers though, and my predictions see them re-entering the top 10 ranked teams very soon, giving them a decent crack at a playoff spot and a ring in 2 years.
5. Baltimore Skipjacks
======================
Baltimore is still rebuilding. They do have some talent on their roster and will enter the playoff race in about 3 years.
6. Toronto Yellowjackets
========================
From first to last, this was quick. I sold every player over OS30 that had value, but got a few youngsters and some picks in return - In fact I'm very happy with the group of 20is players on my rosters and expect to return to the playoffs in 5 years. The short term outlook is grim though, I would be very surprised if I can avoid a 100 loss season.
AL West
=======
1. Boston Bums
==============
Boston is another team with an amazing rotation and a good batting lineup. They are almost up there with the Navs and the Martians, the difference being that their batting lineup is just a bit stronger than the batting group of the Bums. The youngest star in their batting group is OS33, so they have a limited window of opportunity for a ring. However, they will have to step up a bit, as they underperformed last season by finishing 8 games behind the division winner.
2. Washington Generals
======================
Washington is once more the 5th strongest team in the AL, and I projected them to be the odd team out. As it turned out the season went quite well, as they won the AL West with a strong performance, and they can certainly hope to achieve another playoff berth this season. Who cares if they look a bit weaker than the top 4 on paper?
3. Cleveland Lumberjacks
========================
Cleveland almost snatched the AL West last season, only a truly epic breakdown at the end of the season saw them drop to second place. But a lot of their starters have declined this offseason, and even though their top 3 starters return (OS33 to OS34), I would be surprised to see them return to the postseason.
4. Anaheim Twins
================
I have to repeat what I wrote last season. Anaheim is rebuilding, and even though they already have a nice group of pitchers in place, I think the talent on the batting side is still lacking, and they would do well to add a few good young batters, through the draft or through trades.
5. Detroit Tornado
==================
Almost a clone of the Twins talentwise, they have 3 good young pitchers and 4 good young batters, but that's it. As the pitchers are in the OS24-OS26 range, they better hurry in adding more young batters.
6. Oakland Panthers
===================
Oakland has a wealth of good young pitchers. Even though they rank last in the AL West this season, they are on their way back to the playoffs, and I have them ranked #4 five years from now. They could however use some more young batters, most importantly a catcher, as Lemon would be a liability in the playoffs.
NL East
=======
1. Colorado Corruption
======================
Colorado is the strongest team in the AL. They have a great pitching staff, which is complemented by a solid batting lineup. However, their defense remains suspect with an infield that averages only a blue range, which might have contributed to them missing the playoffs. The good news is that only one starter will decline next offseason, so they will have a good chance to go to the WS for 3 seasons. The bad news is that several starting pitchers are closing in on OS34, and it remains to be seen if they can stretch their run to 4 seasons.
2. Cincinnati Red Dogs
======================
The Red Dogs are set up well. They have a great group of players in their prime, and a few younger pitchers that can step in once the current starters decline, so I'd expect the Red Dogs to compete for the NL crown for about 5 years.
3. Arizona Desert Dogs
======================
The incumbent NL champion, Arizona should be almost as strong this season with only 3 guys declining during the last offseason. However, virtually all starters are on the wrong side of 30, and the window to win a ring should end after 2 more seasons.
4. Montreal Royals
==================
Montreal has a great group of players that will need 2-3 more offseasons to mature. They may not yet be strong enough to make the playoffs this season, but are the team to watch in 1976 and beyond, as they should become a strong contender for the NL crown.
5. New York Gentlemen
=====================
New York is in the middle of a rebuild. They already have some decent pieces, especially on the batting side, but I doubt that they'll play October ball for a while, as I see only 1 future star pitcher in their minors.
6. Pittsburgh Crew Dogs
=======================
Pittsburgh started a rebuild which will last a while, as their minors are seriously lacking in talent.
NL West
=======
1. St. Louis Fury
=================
The strongest team in the NL West, STL lives off their strong pitching staff. Their batting lineup is good, even though it is a notch below the top batting groups in the league, but they certainly have a chance to take the NL crown and maybe a ring. Age will catch up to them soon, as several players are OS33 or older, so unless they can make some trades they might have a tough time getting to the playoffs 3 years from now.
2. San Diego Surfers
====================
San Diego has a strong batting group, but only one true ace with Irvine, while the rest of the pitching staff is rather average. Ranked #4 in the NL they have a good chance to make the playoffs, but will need strong performances from their #2 and #3 starters to advance to the world series. They are another team with a mature roster, and will start declining soon.
3. Miami Terra Sol
==================
Miami has a very balanced team with younger and older players, and looks to be in playoff contention for many years to come. The power rankings have them as 6th strongest team in the NL, with a clear path to the top by trading for a few more good batters.
4. Los Angeles Trolley Dodgers
==============================
The Trolley Dodgers is another team coming out of a rebuild, and most likely the one team that will compete with Montreal for the NL title. Their youngsters need 3 more years and then they could play deep into October.
5. San Francisco Chicken Rats
=============================
San Francisco has a few decent players, but clearly not enough to field a playoff team. They do have a few decent youngsters, but not enough to build a good team 5-7 years down the road. For now, fans will have to brace themselves for a long rebuild - let's hope they get a future superstar with the #1 overall pick.
6. Chicago Skyscrapers
======================
Chicago is rebuilding. Some talent is in place, but more talent is required, so fans will need to be patient.
=============================================================================================================================
The numbers are calculated fully automated by a little program I use, the analysis is done by hand obviously.A player has a numerical value for the current skills and the potential value (just like win shares, runs created/saved and so on) so that I can order them from best to worst. The ability to compare teams is a byproduct of this, but not really a focus. I do track player developments to some degree, so I have an idea where a player is in his grades.
The ranking algorithm is rather easy: I rank the current value of a player using linear weights - for pitchers its basically C1*CON + C2*VEL + C3*END, with some constants C1, C2, C3, for batters I calculate batting power C1*CON + C2*PWR + C3*SPD, take 75% vsR and 25% vsL to get an overall batting power, and assign a bonus/penalty for defense.
For the pitchers, the 5 starters are now weighted 120% for the best 3, 90% for the 4th and 50% for the 5th starter. This is due to the fact that the top 3 will start 2 games in playoffs, and pitch a few more games in the regular season (a #5 starter usually gets about 22-24 games, while a #1 guy will get about 36). In the bullpen, I value the 4 best pitchers, with the best reliever (closer) getting 140%, the 2nd reliever 120%, and the other 2 guys 70%. (Personally, that's how I use my pitchers - 1-2 guys to handle all the close games, and the remaining pitchers usually don't pitch a whole lot, and only when the games are not close. The "SPPlay" value is the playoff strength of the starters, where I consider only 4 starters, with the 4th starter at half weight (as the top 3 will start 6 of 7 playoff games).
For the batting value I choose the 8 best batters. I do not consider health (in the playoffs no players have to rest, and for the regular season I just ignore it so far), or that a manager may sit players to develop younger ones or chooses players with good mentoring value over better players that are no good mentors. I do factor in defensive ratings - a team that has only C range, A+ arm guys will earn a steep fielding penalty at the 4 infield positions. (All considered, fielding will not change the ranking of a position player group significantly, unless you have really outstanding or really horrible fielders, in which case you might gain or lose a rating point, or two at the most.) 8 Batters are picked regardless of actual position. Essentially, I will choose the best catcher and the 7 strongest remaining players by considering their batting skills and adding a penalty or bonus for their average range+arm rating. (So I will always choose at least one catcher, but may start 3 catchers if they outrank the players from other positions.) Among the 7 non-catchers I will then choose the 4 players with the highest range for the infield, and penalize the team if their values are below certain thresholds (A- or or worse range at 1B, 2B and SS, B+ or worse Arm at SS, B+ or worse arm/range average at 3B) or award a small bonus for better values. For outfielders, arm is weighted higher than range, but the penalty for bad fielding is very small.
The values are normalized such that 100 would represent an average major leaguer in a system 3 league. A rating of 100 makes an average team, as you would expect. A team with a 105 average rating can usually expect 90-100 wins, depending on the competition in the league, a team with a 95 rating faces the threat of a 100 loss season. The CDL is an above average league, with an average score of 100.6, slightly over the 100 baseline.
The overall value of a team is 55% batting and defense, 35% starters, 10% bullpen.