Playoff predictions:
1976: MIN over NYA, COL over STL. WS: MIN over COL.
1977: MIN over NYA, LAN over COL. WS: MIN over LAN.
1978: MIN over BAL, LAN over MON. WS: MIN over LAN.
1979: MIN over TOR, LAN over MON. WS: MIN over LAN.
Well, well, well. The long-time dominance of the AL (especially of the AL East) led to a predictable result, as the downward spiral seems to have kicked in: Currently only 1 of the top 5 teams in the league comes from the AL. The bad news for the NL is that we're talking about the #1 team that just won two world series in a row. The even worse news is that this won't change anytime soon. The Mavs sit on a fairly young group of elite starters that will only get better with time. And even though some other teams in the AL are close, I don't see them besting Minnesota.
The NL features a group of 4 evenly matched teams (Colorado, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Los Angeles) with a 5th team that might sneak into the playoffs (Montreal). Colorado has the strongest batting lineup and the best 3 starters, they should win the league and we'll probably again see a very evenly matched world series.
AL East
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The Mavericks are back at #1. Still the stronger league in the AL, the 3 strongest AL teams reside here. Baltimore, Chicago and Toronto have young teams that hope to make a push for a ring soon, but are not quite ready yet.
1. Minnesota Mavericks
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What can I write that I haven't written last season? Nothing. 4 elite starters, 1 elite closer, a lineup without holes. Among the top players, the oldest players are OS31. Expect more rings in the years to come.
2. New York Navigators
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The long way down has begun. Still ranked #6 in the league, the pitching has lost a bit of dominance, and only 5 batters are above average. But they still have some very good players, and maybe even more importantly, are the second best team in the AL. I expect them back in the playoffs, but not in the WS.
3. Seattle Martians
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The Martians continue to outperform their ratings, and again almost made it to the world series. But father time will claim a few of their players soon, as they have the oldest team in the league. While they should again make the playoffs this season, this might be their last.
4. Baltimore Skipjacks
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A young team with a deep pitching staff, they are headed back towards the playoffs. Unfortunately they are the #4 team in the division and would have to beat out Minnesota, New York or Seattle for a playoff birth. Their batting lineup needs some work however, a few additions here would go a long way towards the playoffs.
5. Toronto Yellowjackets
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We improved to 59 wins last season, after just 35 wins a year before this. We didn't manage to add some elite pitching prospects in the short rebuild, but there are a few competent pitchers in the fold and I'm very happy with the batting group we assembled. Now we only need about 2 more years for the team to mature.
6. Chicago Pale Hose
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Chicago managed to swing a few trades, acquiring new talent - a good move, as they would have had a hard time making it to the playoffs. In a strong division this means they will reside in the bottom half of the division for 2-3 seasons, after which they should be back in contention, especially if they draft well.
AL West
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Still the weakest division in the league, Washington appears to hold the best cards this season. How far they can get in the playoffs remains to be seen.
1. Washington Generals
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Washington lives off a strong batting lineup. Their pitching group is fairly weak though, as they have only 2 good starters - I'd be a lot more optimistic about their playoff chances if they could somehow acquire a third good starter. Several key players are OS33 or older, so the inevitable rebuild inches closer and closer.
2. Oakland Panthers
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A young team on the rise, they have an outside chance of winning the division this year. Now if they would only draft a few good young batters, as I still see some holes in their talent base.
3. Anaheim Twins
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Even more than Oakland, Anaheim has a good core of young pitchers, but very little in terms of batting talent. I see them as a borderline playoff team, but if they want to play with the big boys then they need to shore up their batting lineup.
4. Detroit Tornado
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Neither here nor there, their current players are not strong enough to carry them to the playoffs while their youngsters don't look to be strong enough to change this anytime soon. I guess we need some stern managing to give this team a direction.
5. Cleveland Lumberjacks
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Cleveland officially made the transition from competing team to rebuilding team this offseason. It doesn't need a magician to predict a few bleak seasons for Cleveland fans.
6. Boston Rascals
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Another team that has recently started a rebuild, the first pieces are in place, but most of the puzzle is still missing. The #1 overall draft pick should help, but they still rank as weakest team in the league.
NL East
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Colorado and Cincy have the inside track to the win their group, with Montreal hoping to upset one of them. Arizona might sneak into the playoff with a lot of help from ABE. New York and Pittsburgh are rebuilding.
1. Colorado Corruption
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With the best batting lineup in the league and 3 elite starters they have built the optimal team for playoff success. Those starters are OS33, OS34 and OS35 however, so this may be the make or break season for them. Their batting lineup is younger and will get them to the playoffs for a few more seasons, but the lack of young talent in their pitching group means they'll enter a rebuild once those 3 starters retire.
2. Cincinnati Red Dogs
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The Red Dogs have a very deep pitching group, but only 1 elite and 2 good starters among them. Their batting lineup is strong enough to succeed against any pitcher in the league, so they should reach the playoffs easily. Whether they can make it to the world series will depend on their pitching, where Salmon and Johnson need good outings to compete with Colorados pitchers.
3. Montreal Royals
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Montreal has a lot of young players, but some of them need a few more seasons to reach their full potential. They will be a top 3 team in 1-2 years, but we'll see if they can make it to the playoffs already in this season.
4. Arizona Desert Dogs
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There is still some life in Arizona. Gowdy, Falk and Miller are a reasonably good group of starters, and they still have 6 batters that are above average. However, that's about it - 2 holes in the batting lineup, a weak group of supporting pitchers and little depth overall will most likely not be enough to make it into the playoffs in a fairly strong division. As a lot of their starters decline, the team appears to be heading towards a complete rebuild.
5. New York Gentlemen
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The decision to trade for a pair of older players is puzzling, to say the least, even though the players they gave up won't set the league on fire. They are developing a competent group of batters in their minors, but Brown is the only noteworthy pitching prospect, and they will have to find some pitchers in the draft to build a contending team.
6. Pittsburgh Crew Dogs
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Pittsburgh is rebuilding, and will be rebuilding for quite a while, as they still need to acquire nearly their full batting lineup of their future.
NL West
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1. St. Louis Fury
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STL was a run or two away from a world series title last season, and not surprisingly they will push for a ring this season too. 2 of their top 3 pitchers decline, as do 4 of their 5 top batters, so they need to make this season count.
2. Los Angeles Trolley Dodgers
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Los Angeles is ready to harves the fruits of their rebuild. A lot of young players are ready, and especially their rotation should develop into one of the strongest in the league. We'll see if the team is already mature enough to go deep into the playoffs this season.
3. San Diego Surfers
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San Diego is an old team with little young talent on their roster. A good time for their fans to take an extended leave of absence, as this team will give them little reason to be proud for a long time.
4. Miami Terra Sol
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Miami features a curious mix of talented old and young players, but they have not enough good veterans to win now and not enough yound dudes to win later. I still recommend a full rebuild, selling off all veterans that have any value.
5. San Francisco Chicken Rats
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I might just copy what I wrote about Miami. Unfortunately SF has even less young talent on their roster. Unless they make some trades they will remain in mediocrity for a long time.
6. Chicago Skyscrapers
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Chicago looks like a team with a plan. They are still deep in rebuild, but their team of the future is slowly shaping up. Fans should sit tight and give them a few seasons to complete the rebuild, and they should be back in contention in maybe 5-7 years.
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The numbers are calculated fully automated by a little program I use, the analysis is done by hand obviously. A player has a numerical value for the current skills and the potential value (just like win shares, runs created/saved and so on) so that I can order them from best to worst. The ability to compare teams is a byproduct of this, but not really a focus. I do track player developments to some degree, so I have an idea where a player is in his grades.
The ranking algorithm is rather easy: I rank the current value of a player using linear weights - for pitchers its basically C1*CON + C2*VEL + C3*END with some adjustments for defense and health, with some constants C1, C2, C3, for batters I calculate batting power C1*CON + C2*PWR + C3*SPD, take 75% vsR and 25% vsL to get an overall batting power, and assign a bonus/penalty for defense and health.
For the pitchers, pick the best five pitchers with enough endurance to start as starters, but weigh them for the team rating as a #1, #2 and #3 starters will pitch more games than the #4 and #5 starters. The weight is 120% for the best 3, 90% for the 4th and 50% for the 5th starter. The "SPPlay" value is the "playoff strength" of the starters, where I consider only the top 4 starters, with the 4th starter at half weight (as the top 3 will start 6 of 7 playoff games). In the bullpen, I value the 4 best pitchers, with the best reliever (closer) getting 140%, the 2nd reliever 120%, and the other 2 guys 70%. (Personally, that's how I use my pitchers - 1-2 guys to handle all the close games, and the remaining pitchers usually don't pitch a whole lot, and only when the games are not close.)
For the batting value I choose the 8 best batters. I do not consider that a manager may sit players to develop younger ones or chooses players with good mentoring value over better players that are no good mentors. I do factor in defensive ratings - a team that has only C range, A+ arm guys will earn a steep fielding penalty at the 4 infield positions. (All considered, fielding will not change the ranking of a position player group significantly, unless you have really outstanding or really horrible fielders, in which case you might gain or lose a rating point, or two at the most.) 8 Batters are picked regardless of actual position. Essentially, I will choose the best catcher and the 7 strongest remaining players by considering their batting skills and adding a penalty or bonus for their average range+arm rating. (So I will always choose at least one catcher, but may start 3 catchers if they outrank the players from other positions.) Among the 7 non-catchers I will then choose the 4 players with the highest range for the infield, and penalize the team if their values are below certain thresholds (A- or or worse range at 1B, 2B and SS, B+ or worse Arm at SS, B+ or worse arm/range average at 3B) or award a small bonus for better values. For outfielders, arm is weighted higher than range, but the penalty for bad fielding is very small.
The values are normalized such that 100 would represent an average major leaguer in a system 3 league. A rating of 100 makes an average team, as you would expect. A team with a 105 average rating can usually expect 90-100 wins, depending on the competition in the league, a team with a 95 rating faces the threat of a 100 loss season. The CDL is an above average league, with an average score of 100.6, slightly over the 100 baseline.
The overall value of a team is 55% batting and defense, 35% starting pitchers and 10% bullpen.
