1977 CDL Power rankings

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Frunobulax
Posts: 240
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:24 pm

1977 CDL Power rankings

Post by Frunobulax »

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A bit shorter than usual, due to lack of time.

Playoff predictions:
1977: MIN over OAK, COL over LAN. WS: MIN over COL.
1978: MIN over OAK, LAN over COL. WS: MIN over LAN.
1979: MIN over OAK, LAN over MON. WS: MIN over LAN.
1980: MIN over OAK, LAN over MON. WS: MIN over COL.

Minnesota is once more the strongest team in the league, but Colorado is a close second, followed by the Trolley Dodgers. All other teams are significantly behind. However, as proven by the Generals last season, once a team gets to the playoff, it can steal a series or two. Cincy also pulled off an upset win in the wild card series and went on to earn a ring.

In general the AL looks rather weak, with the exception of the Mavericks of course. Oakland should win the west. Baltimore, Toronto and Washington and Anaheim are fighting for the remaining playoff spots, but will need help from ABE to make it to the division finals.
In the NL, Montreal and Cincinnati have strong teams. St. Louis has a good chance to make the playoffs despite being weaker than MON and CIN, on account of playing in the weaker group.

Long term, the Mavericks appear to have a pretty good grip on the league. I see them ranked #1 for a whopping 5 years. The Trolley Dodgers and the Royals will try to deny them the title in the next few years, while Oakland looks like the best bet in the AL to race them, and perhaps my Yellowjackets a few years down the road.

AL East
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The Mavericks should win the division by 20 games or more. Baltimore and Toronto will fight for a wild card berth, both teams are still improving but haven't come close to the big guys yet. Chicago is improving but not yet strong enough to compete. New York and Seattle are rebuilding.


AL West
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A fairly weak division that Oakland should win easily, with a good and still young team. Washington and Anaheim can hope for a wild card berth, the Generals are an aging team that will have to rebuild soon. Boston is currently the weakest team in the league and will compete for the 1st overall pick for several seasons.



NL East
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Colorado is almost as good as Minnesota. While their batters are still young, their pitchers are getting old and they should try to get a ring as long as they have a good rotation. Montreal should step in once Colorado declines, the Royals and Red Dogs will be in the hunt for a playoff spot. New York sports a middle-of-the-pack team with a middle-of-the-pack outlook. Arizona and Pittsburgh are rebuilding.


NL West
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The Trolley Dodgers should win this one easily. They have a very strong team that will become the #1 rival of Minnesota over the next seasons - too bad that we don't have interleague play. St. Louis shows sign of aging and will need luck to make it to the playoffs. San Fran and Miami can hope for a playoff spot soon, while Chicago needs more time to climb out of the cellar.



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The numbers are calculated fully automated by a little program I use, the analysis is done by hand obviously. A player has a numerical value for the current skills and the potential value (just like win shares, runs created/saved and so on) so that I can order them from best to worst. The ability to compare teams is a byproduct of this, but not really a focus. I do track player developments to some degree, so I have an idea where a player is in his grades.

The ranking algorithm is rather easy: I rank the current value of a player using linear weights - for pitchers its basically C1*CON + C2*VEL + C3*END with some adjustments for defense and health, with some constants C1, C2, C3, for batters I calculate batting power C1*CON + C2*PWR + C3*SPD, take 75% vsR and 25% vsL to get an overall batting power, and assign a bonus/penalty for defense and health.

For the pitchers, pick the best five pitchers with enough endurance to start as starters, but weigh them for the team rating as a #1, #2 and #3 starters will pitch more games than the #4 and #5 starters. The weight is 120% for the best 3, 90% for the 4th and 50% for the 5th starter. The "SPPlay" value is the "playoff strength" of the starters, where I consider only the top 4 starters, with the 4th starter at half weight (as the top 3 will start 6 of 7 playoff games). In the bullpen, I value the 4 best pitchers, with the best reliever (closer) getting 140%, the 2nd reliever 120%, and the other 2 guys 70%. (Personally, that's how I use my pitchers - 1-2 guys to handle all the close games, and the remaining pitchers usually don't pitch a whole lot, and only when the games are not close.)

For the batting value I choose the 8 best batters. I do not consider that a manager may sit players to develop younger ones or chooses players with good mentoring value over better players that are no good mentors. I do factor in defensive ratings - a team that has only C range, A+ arm guys will earn a steep fielding penalty at the 4 infield positions. (All considered, fielding will not change the ranking of a position player group significantly, unless you have really outstanding or really horrible fielders, in which case you might gain or lose a rating point, or two at the most.) 8 Batters are picked regardless of actual position. Essentially, I will choose the best catcher and the 7 strongest remaining players by considering their batting skills and adding a penalty or bonus for their average range+arm rating. (So I will always choose at least one catcher, but may start 3 catchers if they outrank the players from other positions.) Among the 7 non-catchers I will then choose the 4 players with the highest range for the infield, and penalize the team if their values are below certain thresholds (A- or or worse range at 1B, 2B and SS, B+ or worse Arm at SS, B+ or worse arm/range average at 3B) or award a small bonus for better values. For outfielders, arm is weighted higher than range, but the penalty for bad fielding is very small.

The values are normalized such that 100 would represent an average major leaguer in a system 3 league. A rating of 100 makes an average team, as you would expect. A team with a 105 average rating can usually expect 90-100 wins, depending on the competition in the league, a team with a 95 rating faces the threat of a 100 loss season. The CDL is an above average league, with an average score of 100.6, slightly over the 100 baseline.

The overall value of a team is 55% batting and defense, 35% starting pitchers and 10% bullpen.
zoom
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:29 am

Re: 1977 CDL Power rankings

Post by zoom »

Awesome job once again!
reddogs
Posts: 447
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:21 am

Re: 1977 CDL Power rankings

Post by reddogs »

Great work! Very interesting read.
I do hope you don't mind that I just play baseball. ;)
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