Switch to a better RNG for ABE

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Vytron
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Vytron »

eragon wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:14 am Overperforming:
.671 OPS in 283 at bats
.665 OPS in 97 at bats
Too high OPS according to their grades?
eragon wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:14 am Underperforming:
.782 OPS in 499 at bats
I said "most", and only one player reversed the trend in the entire batch? Anyway, we can't check, players deleted at trial reset.
eragon wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:14 amYou're looking for patterns that don't exist (which makes sense, that's how the human brain works, but this is not a conspiracy lolz)
I'm not the only one trying to find and predict patterns, being able to know which players will overperform and draft them higher or trade for them, and sinking underperforming players so they're not drafted despite their great stats is a skill. There's people much better than me at it, but one can learn and improve. I thought people were just doing it by estimating actual numbers behind stats, but low B+s can greatly outperform high B+ and even high A-,and if you know, you draft them and use them instead (check how many people are playing with B Power B+ Contact players and doing great while better ranked players are sitting on the bench?)

At least it's for only a half-season, someone might win the world series sweeping the other teams and proceed to sink to the last places on the 1951 one because their players are put on worse patterns despite the sim claiming they converted improvement points. Players shouldn't be performing worse after "improving", it happens because "luck" is having a bigger effect than converted Improvement Chances.
SquidJordan wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:09 am all you can do is all you can do.
Vytron wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:01 pm Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about
WillyD
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by WillyD »

Vytron wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 12:49 pm At least it's for only a half-season, someone might win the world series sweeping the other teams and proceed to sink to the last places on the 1951 one because their players are put on worse patterns despite the sim claiming they converted improvement points. Players shouldn't be performing worse after "improving", it happens because "luck" is having a bigger effect than converted Improvement Chances.
Vytron, I don't think you understand the game of baseball that well. Just because a player improves doesn't mean he automatically performs better the next season. Other players he competes against are also improving, or declining. Some seasons there may be more improvement league wide in pitching, so your hitter that improved a few points is paying against better pitchers. He also may have played above his head the previous season, so now he needs to overcome that and better league wide pitching. Throw in the possibility of improved defense, improved manager settings, etc., and it's very easy to understand that player stats will vary from year to year.

This goes the other way too, as there are years that league pitching skill can decline helping to boost your hitter's stats. This will give you false expectations in later years when that skill level reverses.

If you play a few decades in a pay league, you'll see that what you're pointing out are really small sample sizes that occur all the time in small doses over a large timeline, and are easily explained away.

If you want to see real consistency of statistics in players, watch a championship teams's players (especially those with high health) perform over a long period of time. Being on a well run team with a stable core of talent around them, and playing in a consistent amount of games year after year will allow a player to minimize these down years. In league where there is more stability in talent like in a wheel draft league or league with anti-tanking rules, you'll see even more consistency in play.
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Vytron
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Vytron »

WillyD wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:10 pm Other players he competes against are also improving, or declining. Some seasons there may be more improvement league wide in pitching, so your hitter that improved a few points is paying against better pitchers.
I'm not necessarily comparing it to its previous self, but to another player on the team. Say, player with great stats improves, and player with subpar stats is old and declines. And yet the latter performs much better than the former for all the half season. Then after the half-season ends they go back to performing as expected (return to the mean and such), this feels like drawing cards from an entirely different deck.

They both are facing the same pitchers and teams, so it feels... too random (note the word "feel", I admit this all could be subjective.)

I've been playing in trial leagues since 2015 and if I learned something is that finding those players on patterns is better than ignoring performance and using the ones with best letter grades (this last deleted season I traded a struggling high rated player for 2 hot low rated players, one of the hot ended with better stats so I basically took advantage of knowing the patterns - which shouldn't be possible but happens.)
WillyD wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:10 pmHe also may have played above his head the previous season, so now he needs to overcome that and better league wide pitching. Throw in the possibility of improved defense, improved manager settings, etc., and it's very easy to understand that player stats will vary from year to year.
But all my team players are facing the same teams, I'd expect then that against better pitching there would be overall worse hitting stats and such. Instead, about 60% of players look fine, 20% will throw their stats away, 20% will do amazing things over the best. It's worthwhile to throw a few games at the start of the season to find the hot players, at least, I've been in much more Playoffs or on third place since using this instead of "see letter grades, set up team and forget."
WillyD wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:10 pmIf you play a few decades in a pay league, you'll see that what you're pointing out are really small sample sizes that occur all the time
Yeah, that's why I wasn't going to go there, I predicted this:
Vytron wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 10:44 pmYeah, the reason I haven't been posting them is because anybody could say "with so few at bats anything can happen", and they'd be right. That's why pseudorandomness is so widely used, it's incredibly hard to prove its biases.
The most fun thing the sim has to offer is the drafting a team from scratch aspect, by 1952 either a team is strong and there's not much to do, or it's weak and worthy of being abandoned. Pay leagues that go on and on miss the whole "I'll win by picking players better than all others" possibility at the start of a reset, so a few decades of pay leagues do not sound appealing.

The question is how often these things should happen to feel right, they feel off, specially when one of your players gets injured and you can predict more injuries are coming and get ready for them. Then they happen (heh, I should have memories of a moment I prepared for a future injury and nothing happened, but they're like predestined). Any prediction unrelated to player stats should be impossible.

Note people that have gotten used to all these things feel they're normal because they've been "normalized", just like all the things happening in society that are bizarre but were "normalized" since we were kids. I'm still astonished.
SquidJordan wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:09 am all you can do is all you can do.
Vytron wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:01 pm Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about
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Vytron
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Re: Switch to a better RNG for ABE

Post by Vytron »

Just look at the frustration of all these guys:

viewtopic.php?p=155837
STEROIDS_R_US wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:48 pm I feel for you bud and I also know from previous experience of the same situation. I ended up quitting the NGL over the same situation x 2. First round of the playoffs in NGL and winners go to the Finals and not just in one of the series but in both first round playoff series the teams that were up 3 - 0 both lost 4 - 3 in the same playoff year and same playoff bracket. Something that is supposed to happen once or twice in a generation in real life happens almost every playoff series in Sim D. It's so ridiculous. I had a good team and good record in NGL too and I just said fuck it, ABE obviously doesn't want my money. For it to happen once in a playoff year but twice in the same round was total bullshit.
Hopefully you don't quit, but completely understandable after that.
Sometimes it feels like everything you do in sim dynasty is irrelevant because it all comes down to luck.
Slvanlae
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Re: Switch to a better RNG for ABE

Post by Slvanlae »

Vytron wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:30 am Just look at the frustration of all these guys:

viewtopic.php?p=155837
STEROIDS_R_US wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:48 pm I feel for you bud and I also know from previous experience of the same situation. I ended up quitting the NGL over the same situation x 2. First round of the playoffs in NGL and winners go to the Finals and not just in one of the series but in both first round playoff series the teams that were up 3 - 0 both lost 4 - 3 in the same playoff year and same playoff bracket. Something that is supposed to happen once or twice in a generation in real life happens almost every playoff series in Sim D. It's so ridiculous. I had a good team and good record in NGL too and I just said fuck it, ABE obviously doesn't want my money. For it to happen once in a playoff year but twice in the same round was total bullshit.
Hopefully you don't quit, but completely understandable after that.
Sometimes it feels like everything you do in sim dynasty is irrelevant because it all comes down to luck.
That is Baseball...
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