Switch to a better RNG for ABE

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Vytron
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Switch to a better RNG for ABE

Post by Vytron »

Original title: The most talked about topic on the whole forum (no longer accurate)

It's the big pink elephant in the room, except we all talk about it.

ABE

People complain all around the place about how they do exactly what they were supposed to, to the point they wouldn't have done anything differently, and yet ABE brings them the opposite of what they expected. People have quit over this...

ABE is Sim Dynasty's Achilles heel, and if what Admin has been saying is true, the only thing left to blame is the pseudo random number generator.

I don't know what we're using, but it's baaad...

Image

My suggestion is simple: Change the algorithm.

Keep all probabilities the same, just change the core that picks the numbers.

I remember when I used Winamp player's Playlist Shuffling, more than 10000 songs on the list, and I would listen to the same song 3 days in a row... I accepted it because I thought that's how randomness was like. But after listening to it for years, and trying iTunes, with the same songs, I was blown away by the ones that were playing, it felt very fresh, completely different. And the only change was the pseudorandom number generator.

I bet we could have one that feels right and it'd stop all the threads complaining about ABE, or at least most of them, because if you've been hit by ABE, and after looking at the data you can only scratch your head and not understand what happened, I can tell you the reason: IT WAS NOT RANDOM.
Last edited by Vytron on Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
SquidJordan wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:09 am all you can do is all you can do.
Vytron wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:01 pm Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about
Michael1
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Michael1 »

ABE is fine Baseball is a funny thing. A Fickle Girl friend/Boy friend. a cruel mistress, Luck is not always a Lady and you all need to get over it. Bob Gibson lost games, The Power House Seattle Mariners with 116 wins lost to the Yankees. Slumps happen in the game despite what any one else claims Arm and Range figure into plays a hit against a C+ range LF is an out vs a A- range LF. Alex Gordon gets to the ball, Greg Luzinski plays it off the wall for a double. It happens. Put the best guys out there you will succeed more than fail.
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Vytron
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Vytron »

Michael1 wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:09 pm you all need to get over it.
I can't, specially not when a team is terrible so I abandon it only to see ABE makes it perform great when I'm not there, and the team rocks unattended.

The only difference seems to be the name of the players. Sometimes the date seems to be a factor, if that's not the case we need to know what's in there because this doesn't look like good randomness.

And it looks like this can be abused, I'm currently running experiments to try to sway ABE's luck in my favor, and it may have a bigger effect than sorting some C+ A+ player over an A- A- one. Though of course it could be just luck...
SquidJordan wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:09 am all you can do is all you can do.
Vytron wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:01 pm Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about
Michael1
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Michael1 »

It is luck WillyD and Hamilton will tell you so.
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Vytron
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Vytron »

I think close examination would reveal the contrary (players underperforming or overperforming until exactly the season's end and being the opposite starting from the next season, can't be coincidence.)

What WillyD and Hamilton could say is that it's programmed to be just luck, but they assume the random number generator works, I challenge that assumption.
SquidJordan wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:09 am all you can do is all you can do.
Vytron wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:01 pm Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about
Hamilton2
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Hamilton2 »

If you don't trust the core game engine, you need to find a different website.
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Vytron
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Vytron »

Hamilton2 wrote: Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:47 pm If you don't trust the core game engine, you need to find a different website.
I've tried, sim dynasty is the best... I've even been favored by the randomness, of course... whenever an opponent is critically hit by randomness it balances out... all I'm suggesting is trying a different generator would stop the complains from so many people and keep more owners in paid leagues (those that quit because of ABE.)

It's as if ABE made several rolls for events, then picked the most unlikely one, then goes "well, you see, I could have rolled that from the start, anyway". I just had my main catcher and my backup catcher injured at the beginning of a league, what are the chances that both were catchers? And that both were on my team? And that they happened one after the other within the league's start? Astronomical! I was prepared as if I saw it coming, but still...

Is real life this random? If so I'll desist. Despite my apparent wrath, it's just a suggestion, I'm not saying the website is bad because of it.
SquidJordan wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:09 am all you can do is all you can do.
Vytron wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:01 pm Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about
Hamilton2
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Hamilton2 »

It would not stop anyone complaining.

There are approximately 10,000 random numbers from which the simulation selects results during a plate appearance. The pitcher velocity/control and hitter contact/power (and to a lesser extent speed) adjust the base probabilities of each potential outcome (HR, T, D, H, BB, SO, GO, FO, etc.). That's all it does. It isn't complicated. It isn't crazy.

It appears to be "patterned" because of the human brain's tendency toward confirmation bias and self-fulfilling prophecy. Shaking the computer engine and starting it over is the same as swapping your dice in yatzee because you rolled two identical outcomes in consecutive rolls.
Hamilton2
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Hamilton2 »

And it this point, it isn't ABE who is driving owners off.
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Vytron
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Re: The most talked about topic on the whole forum

Post by Vytron »

Hamilton2 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:39 pm It appears to be "patterned" because of the human brain's tendency toward confirmation bias and self-fulfilling prophecy.
But I'm been able to make successful predictions, like knowing which C- Velocity A+ Control pitchers are going to rock (ourperforming B A+ ones). I shouldn't be able to make those predictions. ABE has several patters he falls into and once detected you can take nonsensical actions that benefit you (like using a B Contact B+ Control Catcher instead of a B+ A+ one because you know it's on a overperformance pattern for the season.)
Hamilton2 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:39 pmShaking the computer engine and starting it over is the same as swapping your dice in yatzee because you rolled two identical outcomes in consecutive rolls.
I'm talking more about charged dice. I'm desisting because the charged dice are given fairly to all players, one can actually just join several trial leagues and drop the ones where one got bad dice, it's at least information that should be given to new owners (they could be randomly targeted by ABE), but more power to me.

Sincerely,
Vytron, the sim dynasty conspiracy theorist
SquidJordan wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:09 am all you can do is all you can do.
Vytron wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:01 pm Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about
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