WillyD wrote: ↑Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:10 pm
Other players he competes against are also improving, or declining. Some seasons there may be more improvement league wide in pitching, so your hitter that improved a few points is paying against better pitchers.
I'm not necessarily comparing it to its previous self, but to another player on the team. Say, player with great stats improves, and player with subpar stats is old and declines. And yet the latter performs much better than the former for all the half season. Then after the half-season ends they go back to performing as expected (return to the mean and such), this feels like drawing cards from an entirely different deck.
They both are facing the same pitchers and teams, so it feels... too random (note the word "feel", I admit this all could be subjective.)
I've been playing in trial leagues since 2015 and if I learned something is that finding those players on patterns is better than ignoring performance and using the ones with best letter grades (this last deleted season I traded a struggling high rated player for 2 hot low rated players, one of the hot ended with better stats so I basically took advantage of knowing the patterns - which shouldn't be possible but happens.)
WillyD wrote: ↑Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:10 pmHe also may have played above his head the previous season, so now he needs to overcome that and better league wide pitching. Throw in the possibility of improved defense, improved manager settings, etc., and it's very easy to understand that player stats will vary from year to year.
But all my team players are facing the same teams, I'd expect then that against better pitching there would be overall worse hitting stats and such. Instead, about 60% of players look fine, 20% will throw their stats away, 20% will do amazing things over the best. It's worthwhile to throw a few games at the start of the season to find the hot players, at least, I've been in much more Playoffs or on third place since using this instead of "see letter grades, set up team and forget."
WillyD wrote: ↑Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:10 pmIf you play a few decades in a pay league, you'll see that what you're pointing out are really small sample sizes that occur all the time
Yeah, that's why I wasn't going to go there, I predicted this:
Vytron wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 10:44 pmYeah, the reason I haven't been posting them is because anybody could say "with so few at bats anything can happen", and they'd be right. That's why pseudorandomness is so widely used, it's incredibly hard to prove its biases.
The most fun thing the sim has to offer is the drafting a team from scratch aspect, by 1952 either a team is strong and there's not much to do, or it's weak and worthy of being abandoned. Pay leagues that go on and on miss the whole "I'll win by picking players better than all others" possibility at the start of a reset, so a few decades of pay leagues do not sound appealing.
The question is how often these things should happen to feel right, they feel off, specially when one of your players gets injured and you can predict more injuries are coming and get ready for them. Then they happen (heh, I should have memories of a moment I prepared for a future injury and nothing happened, but they're like predestined). Any prediction unrelated to player stats should be impossible.
Note people that have gotten used to all these things feel they're normal because they've been "normalized", just like all the things happening in society that are bizarre but were "normalized" since we were kids. I'm still astonished.