HOF Snubs and Near Misses

[acnunnally]

Of course, no Hall of Fame vote is worth its salt without a discussion of the snubs and near misses. Here are my thoughts:

Worst Pitcher Snub

Dutch Leonard, SP, BOS/KC (retired 2008)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=7620585
CYA, 5 x AS, 3 x WSC, ERA LL, WHIP LL, 223-147, 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

It is a high crime of voting that Leonard was not inducted. He received 50% of the vote (inexplicably down from 62.5% last ballot) in spite of a career ERA of 3.13 and career WHIP of 1.17 to go along with a very impressive 223 W. He won a CYA, 3 World Series Championships, and earned 5 All-Star nods as a starter (a tough feat). Starting pitchers who retired between 2000 and 2009 who have been inducted into the Hall of Fame boast an average of 253 wins, 2.99 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP, but here's the problem: ONLY FOUR PITCHERS FROM THAT DECADE HAVE BEEN INDUCTED. The immediately preceding decade (7 inductees) has averages of 246 W, 3.45 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP, and it seems hard to believe that pitching improved so much in such a short time as to expect entirely different standards to apply. Leonard blows the 3.45/1.21 rate stats out of the water by comparison. Although his 223 wins rate a bit behind the career averages of 253 and 246 for the two cohorts, respectively, against the backdrop of the credentials over which he had direct individual control, it is a great injustice for him to be excluded.

Worst Position Player Snub

Mark Charleston, 1B, PIT/BOS/BRO (retired 2009)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=8174666
MVP, ROY, 8 x AS, 2 x WSC, BA LL, 2 x OBP LL, OPS LL, SLG LL, 2426 H, 1504 R, 387 SB, .878/.389/.489/.311

Let's review: This guy slashed .878/.389/.489/.311 in a cohort where the average Hall of Famer slashed just .821/.353/.468/.287. In other words, he is CONSIDERABLY better than the elite players of his own era. He won an MVP, had 8 All-Star nods, won two World Series, and had plenty of black ink to boot. He also had 387 SB and 1504 R. He may not have hit as many HR as most HOFers, but I'll take an .878 career OPS all day, thanks.

Other Snubs and Near Misses

Hank Harlow, SP, STL (retired 1996)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=5330879
6 x AS, 4 x K LL, 5 x CG LL, 215-172, 143 CG, 2790 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Harlow is a member of the aforementioned 1990-1999 cohort, where average rate stats were 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. His 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are slightly above those averages, but he threw a staggering 143 CG, good for 13th all-time, and he also struck out 2790 batters (with 4 strikeout titles), substantially above the average of only 2579 for the relevant inductee cohort. Harlow also had 6 All-Star nods, a great number for a starting pitcher. His 215 wins (and W-L record) are clearly a function of not playing on very good teams, but he fought for every win he got -- including by completing 143 of his starts -- and there can be little argument he was one of the most dominating pitchers of his era.

Van Monaco, SP, BRO (retired 2011)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=9170400
2 x CYA, ROY, 7 x AS, 4 x WSC, 238-120 (.665 W%), 2918 K, 148 CG (11th All-Time), 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12 x 200 K, 4 x 20 W

Monaco fell one vote short in receiving 62.5% of the vote. Although his career rate stats are less impressive than the three starting pitchers just inducted from the 2010 to 2014 subcohort, he racked up 238 wins on an absurd .665 winning percentage to go along with nearly 3000 K (2918 to be exact), 2 CYAs, ROY, 7 All-Star nods, and 6 World Series Championships. Oh, and he threw 148 complete games, good for 11th all-time. It's almost impossible to be a greater winner than Van Monaco, and he deserves a spot in the HOF in my view.

Eddie Cicotte, SP, BOS/NYA (retired 2014)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=9322991
CYA, ROY, 4 x AS, 2 x WSC, 4 x K LL, 231-183, 3287 K, 3.38 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 13 x 200 K, 3 x 20 W

It's a real head-scratcher that Cicotte received only 37.5% of the vote with COMPELLING numbers like these. The guy has 231 wins and 3287 strikeouts on the back of a career 3.38 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Does the analysis really need to go any further than that to throw the HOF doors open for him without another thought? If you want to take it further, you can glance at his 13 x 200 K, 4 x K titles, CYA, or 2 WSCs. Cicotte is a no-brainer.

Hideki Suzuki, SP, PIT (retired 1983)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=3542516
CYA, 4 x AS, 3 x WSC, 2 x WHIP LL, 245-143, 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3 x 20W

Suzuki pitched in the height of mash time. HOF averages for his retiree cohort were 3.60 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, which are almost exactly his career numbers. He also had 245 wins, 3 20-W seasons, a CYA, 4 All-Star nods, and 3 World Series Championships. I don't think Suzuki should be allowed to be a victim of unreasonable statistical expectations relative to the era in which he played. The upcoming ballot is his last. He's polled as high as 62.5% but needs to make the jump from 37.5% last ballot to 75% on the next to gain induction.

Lowe Morgan, RF, CIN/KC/HOU/BOS (retired 2013)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=9322936
5 x AS, 3 x GG, 370 HR, .885/.367/.518/.303

Morgan's case is similar in many respects to Charleston's, and he came up one vote short at 62.5%. His rate stats are beyond superb, clocking .885 OPS at over .360 on OBP, .500 in SLG, and .300 BA. He also hit 370 HR, which is more than Charleston, though he was somewhat less decorated in terms of awards and he lacked the longevity to get some of his other counting stats up. Still, an .885 career OPS in over 7,000 career at-bats...

Colman Hawkins, RF, KC/STL (retired 2013)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=9680818
2 x MVP, 8 x AS, 3 x GG, 385 HR, 1520 RBI, .830/.346/.484/.286

Hawkins checks just about all (reasonable and relative) HOF boxes -- 2 MVP awards, 8 All-Star nods, big counting stats with 385 HR and 1520 RBI, and rate stats (.830/.346/.484/.286) that are above the average for HOFers from the prior full retiree cohort. He was one vote short at 62.5%, and I don't know what's not to like.

Wally Delsing, CF, BRO (retired 2009)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=7620604
MVP, ROY, 7 x AS, 2 x WSC, 347 HR, 1592 RBI, 1658 R, 2843 H, .795/.350/.445/.280

Miah Dashner, 2B, ATL (retired 2010)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=8698566
MVP, ROY, 10 x AS, 3 x WSC, 2587 H, .810/.359/.451/.288

Rube Wilson, 1B, CIN/WAS/NYA (retired 2010)
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=8483618
ROY, 4 x AS, 9 x GG, +182 +/-, 340 HR, .812/.336/.476/.278

I'm taking these three guys together. Delsing was one vote short at 62.5% with Dashner and Wilson each two votes shy at 50%. Delsing has the worst rate stats of the three, but accumulated 347 HR, 1592 RBI, and 1658 R, to go with an MVP and 7 x All-Star. Dashner and Wilson had better rate stats, each around .810 OPS, with Dashner as more of an on-base guy and a 10-time All-Star and Wilson having more power (340 HR) and a stunning 9 Gold Gloves and a +182 career +/- rating. Dashner and Wilson probably represent about the "new normal" for HOF OPS averages, and the question is whether Delsing's strong counting stats boost him past his somewhat subpar percentages.

[Michael1]

Every person who runs the Hall of Fame thinks that all the players he nominates should get elected. I understand your trying to get the greatest of the greats into the Hall of Fame but with only half the league voting you can't expect the numbers to favor all the greats. NO reason Y'all aren't voting cause it takes 15 minutes to 30 minutes max.

[GM33]

I’m not sure why I omitted Leonard to be honest. I voted for him the previous time and agree the numbers are worthy. He gets my vote again next time.

I can see why Charleston may be easy to overlook based on some of the counting stats. But the balanced hitting, stolen base numbers, and peripherals are too good to ignore in my opinion as well.

Great work putting it all together as usual commish.