Potential

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Killroy24
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Potential

Post by Killroy24 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:11 am

Good Morning,

Killroy here working on research on player development. Is Potential the ability for a player's success at developing? I have not seen anything in the guidelines or even the stuff Cueball sent me on what Potential is. So I am taking an educated guess based on some of the wavier moves I have seen. I want to make sure I am ready for the draft. Can Potential improve or is like health in BB It never goes up but will go down as the player gets older?

In BB Players can retire at 34 but the good ones will play till 40 or older depending on health and how much they are used. What is the general rule for retirement on FB?

Dennis J Bowker

Cueball899
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Re: Potential

Post by Cueball899 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:10 am

Potential never improves. Potential just factors into how well a player improves. During the course of the football season, your players will improve and decline based on that player's playing time, training plan, and individual factors such as Age, Potential, and Attitude.

tigershm1977
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Re: Potential

Post by tigershm1977 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:49 am

It was in the guide, havent rechecked but idk why it would've been deleted
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Neon17
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Re: Potential

Post by Neon17 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:12 am

In FB players usually don’t make it to 35. Most players begin declining anywhere from age 27 to 30+, usually the better players take longer to start declining. I have found potential to be a generally unhelpful stat, it’s usually better to look at the improvement report on the player card to see the trends in how they develop.
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luminafire
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Re: Potential

Post by luminafire » Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:41 pm

Killroy24 wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:11 am
Good Morning,

Killroy here working on research on player development. Is Potential the ability for a player's success at developing? I have not seen anything in the guidelines or even the stuff Cueball sent me on what Potential is. So I am taking an educated guess based on some of the wavier moves I have seen. I want to make sure I am ready for the draft. Can Potential improve or is like health in BB It never goes up but will go down as the player gets older?

In BB Players can retire at 34 but the good ones will play till 40 or older depending on health and how much they are used. What is the general rule for retirement on FB?

Dennis J Bowker
Development here works with what are called ICs (improvement chances)

Basically, all the letter grades for the player skills (catch, throw power, agility, pass cover, etc) have a number behind them. The trick is, we don't know exactly what number the letter represents-- just the range.

A+ 92-100
A 84 - 91
A- 76 - 83
B+ 68 - 75
B 60 - 67
B- 52 - 59
C+ 44 - 51
C 36 - 43
C- 28 - 35
D+ 20 - 27
D 12 - 19
D- 4 - 11
F 1 - 3

Now then, so an IC is a chance at gaining like, an improvement point in a particular skill. If you look at players' player cards there's an "improvements tab" where the stats are for that player. You'll see these fractions for position and for drill. You gain position ICs (You can cross train-players like training a TE as a FB to give them run block but I have not been very successful training a player as an outside position-- you can't convert players entirely to new positions-- that only can happen in college which we have no control over. Don't know why) after every game and you gain drill ICs before each game.

Now, an improvement chance is not necessarily one exact point of actual value. That's is to say that 1 IC is one IC. That doesn't mean that a player with a minimum A- score (76) goes to 77 because you gained one IC in that particular skill and the higher the grade is, the less a converted improvement chance may be. Converting 1/3 ICs in speed on a receiver with F speed to start with is worth a lot more potentially than converting 1/3 in throw accuracy for a QB who already has A+ accuracy. From the game guide:
Player improvements occur during the week before a game, based on each player's individual training plan. Improvements are tracked internally to a tenth of a point, and a successful improve may encompass a range from a fraction of a full point to over a full point. Thus, in leagues using letter grade systems, counting improvements will not give an exact value of a player's grade, but should provide a good estimation. Average improvement sizes are larger for low grades and smaller for high grades. The maximum value for any ability is 100.0.

It is very easy to improve in an area you know nothing about; conversely, it takes a lot of work to reach the top in an area you are skilled in. It is the same in Sim Dynasty Football; a single converted improvement in a skill that a player has a D- or F in may be worth 2 to 3 points; an improvement for a player who is already an A or A+ in a skill may only net half a point or less. There is a random factor involved in each improvement, but this factor is on a bell curve so most improvements will be near the average.


So yeah, you have no way of knowing if your converted IC is worth the maximum improvement of an IC for that letter grade or not (for someone with a skill that's F, is the IC worth 2 points or three? If I convert an IC for an A+ skill is it worth half a point in actual skill improvement or a fraction of half of a point?). You kind of have to "get a feel" for what the number behind the letter grades is by watching them as early as in college. For example, if I watched a senior QB when the draft was released with B+ throw power and then right before the draft, after a year of that player improving in school, they're a A- but they only converted two ICs in that period, now I know that that A- score at the time of the draft is in the mid to high seventies. I often write notes about what letter grade a player was at the start of their career and how many ICs it took them to graduate to the next letter grade.

To go back to your question though: the skill called POTENTIAL determines how many ICs a player gets per day (improvement chances, not successfully converted improvement chances-- note the difference). You can't change potential-- it stays the same throughout a player's whole career so an A+ potential player could be very valuable. The skill called ATTITUDE can be improved with training drill "D" (Discipline) in the dropdown menu next to a player's name on your roster page. That skill determines how many of the improvement CHANCES you actually convert into "converted improvement chances". Noting this will help you decide what players to draft.

Player's grow faster in general int their early-early twneties, then they slow down a bit. By the time their 25 unless they're a QB they're more-or-less stopped growing. After 25 players can start to decline (they get negative improvement chances in skills to show they're getting older but, again, you don't know how much that converted negative improvement chance is). The declines start slow but by the time they're 27 they usually start to get exponential in value except for QBs. Skill positions (like wide receiver) decline faster than other positions like an offensive linemen in general (but not necessarily as a hard and fast rule)

If your player is on the active roster, they gain more improvement chances. If they play in the game, they get even more improvement chances. Depending on how long they play in the game they get even MORE improvement chances (the benefit only extends to 15 minutes of playing time-- after that, you get no benefit in this regard).

As a tip for the draft, when I look at players, I look for guys either with all the skills I need at A- level or above or sometimes guys who have every skill A- or above that I need except one which is maybe B+ (and then I'm gambling it's a high B+). If that skill is below B+, they're never going to get to A- or A, which is really the ideal level you want in a needed skill (A- strength offensive linemen are generally useless but if they're A or A+ in strength, they're good to very good thus if you have a Tackle in the draft that has B+ strength, they're probably not worth drafting because A- is your realistic ceiling for that skill-- improvements are generally slight so guys with a B score in something are generally not going to get A or A+ in the course of their career and further, some skills generally are more difficult to develop than others-- speed, for example)

As another tip in the draft, if you look at a guy's improvement tab, you'll see at the bottom, the sum of converted improvement chances over their years in school versus how many ICs they potentially had. It appears as a fraction. Divide the converted ICs by the total ICs a player had to get a fraction. Generally, a 30% rate of improvement is a decently high improvement rate. If they're 40% or above, especially a QB and they're not starting out impossibly low like B- or B, you should probably grab them ASAP if they have basically all the skills you need for a particular position.

QBs can improve in throw accuracy (I'm not sure if it applies to power) up to their thirties and don't really decline much until then (generally-- sometimes you can have 20 year old who declines slightly every year but that's a rare bad luck kind of thing). RBs are the first to decline-- right after age 25, they can start to plummet. Not all, but a lot of them. Skill positions in general like WR decline faster than any other positions.

Kickers and punters can last deep into their thirties. Every now and then you'll find a freak player who lasts in a useful capacity into their mid-thirties but generally, a non-QB non-punter/kicker kind of player is done at 30 or on the verge of being done.

The time at which people will generally consider a guy done and not trade for him if he's not one of the three outliers I mentioned is usually around 27/28. After that, you'll get scraps. Unless it's a special player you probably won't get someone to match or exceed the value you paid for a player or drafted them in unless they're 25/26 or under-- especially if they're weak in a skill necessary for that position. I'm not going to pay top dollar for a WR with B+ catch who's 25 because I know there's really no hope they're going to get to A- or above and even if they did it'd be the lowest A- possible which is basically a B+.

Does this help? It certainly took a while to type.
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luminafire
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Re: Potential

Post by luminafire » Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:47 pm

As a side note, as you can tell by how much crap I had to explain just to answer your simple question meaningfully (for someone who is totally new to the football side). There's a LOT like that. The game guide is an encyclopedia and generally you'll learn through trial and error. You're going to suck for the first 3-4 seasons MINIMUM so just get ready for that. As much as it'll suck to lose do your best to watch the games (not the boxscore, watch the game in dynastyvision), pay attention to what works, what doesn't (not just for you but your opponent-- look at their roster, the frequency of what plays they use and when) and keep asking questions because we're a very user-friendly league. If your roster has the remnants of the roster of the previous owner and you win a bunch of games by default don't get a false sense of confidence. I went to the Sim Bowl with the prior owner's roster to my franchise (current owner of the Tigers) and thought I was all that, but in the meanwhile I was making foolish trades that depleted the roster and I hadn't learned anything. It took me a long time go grasp this game-- I've been here 6 years and I'm barely .500. Still, when my roster's right (Currently it isn't) I'm known as a competitive player who has won some titles because I stuck with it and was a student of the game.

Don't trade for older players (my thick block of text in the above post explains why). You need the youngest guys possible. I wouldn't make many trades at all until you learn to evaluate player values versus draft picks, or ask someone before you do it. Just be patient, have fun and pay attention and you'll be fine. Listen to people's advice (unless a bunch of people say they don't know what the hell they're talking about)

Here's the game guide. It will seem like gibberish until you get some experience, but all the answers are here. Six years later, I'm still checking the game guide.

http://rules.simdynasty.com/index.php/S ... Game_Guide (scroll to the top of the page-- maybe it's just me but it keeps bringing me to the middle)
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Re: Potential

Post by luminafire » Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:53 pm

Oh and also, attitude and potential generally mean what I said but those aren't hard and fast rules. I've seen guys with A+ potential and reasonable attitude who sucked at improving. You have to keep an eye on the improvement tab on the player card like I said and keep track of what percentage of ICs they've been converting. Even further, that percentage trick isn't just to be taken at face value. A senior in the draft who converted 35% of their ICs but only had 150 total improvement chances has a MUCH lower ceiling than someone who had say, 250 improvement chances and converted 30% of them.
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shbo2
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Re: Potential

Post by shbo2 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:28 pm

luminafire wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:53 pm
Oh and also, attitude and potential generally mean what I said but those aren't hard and fast rules. I've seen guys with A+ potential and reasonable attitude who sucked at improving. You have to keep an eye on the improvement tab on the player card like I said and keep track of what percentage of ICs they've been converting. Even further, that percentage trick isn't just to be taken at face value. A senior in the draft who converted 35% of their ICs but only had 150 total improvement chances has a MUCH lower ceiling than someone who had say, 250 improvement chances and converted 30% of them.
You have it backwards. Potential covers how likely a player is to convert an improvement chance. Attitude effects how many improvement chances a player receives. Here's the relevant bit copied directly from the game guide.....

Thus, Attitude is, on average, worth just over 1 IC per 10 points of Attitude over the course of a 21-week season (16 games + bye + preseason).

Converting Improvement Chances to Improvements
At the end of the week, immediately prior to playing the first quarter of the next game, Improvement Chances are processed based on your selected Training Plans for each player and may be converted to Improvements. The chance of converting an Improvement is based on a player's age and Potential,

luminafire
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Re: Potential

Post by luminafire » Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:04 pm

shbo2 wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:28 pm
luminafire wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:53 pm
Oh and also, attitude and potential generally mean what I said but those aren't hard and fast rules. I've seen guys with A+ potential and reasonable attitude who sucked at improving. You have to keep an eye on the improvement tab on the player card like I said and keep track of what percentage of ICs they've been converting. Even further, that percentage trick isn't just to be taken at face value. A senior in the draft who converted 35% of their ICs but only had 150 total improvement chances has a MUCH lower ceiling than someone who had say, 250 improvement chances and converted 30% of them.
You have it backwards. Potential covers how likely a player is to convert an improvement chance. Attitude effects how many improvement chances a player receives. Here's the relevant bit copied directly from the game guide.....

Thus, Attitude is, on average, worth just over 1 IC per 10 points of Attitude over the course of a 21-week season (16 games + bye + preseason).

Converting Improvement Chances to Improvements
At the end of the week, immediately prior to playing the first quarter of the next game, Improvement Chances are processed based on your selected Training Plans for each player and may be converted to Improvements. The chance of converting an Improvement is based on a player's age and Potential,
My bad. I had a feeling, but I thought I had it right. Towards the end of my run the only players I was absorbing were via trade so I guess I forgot.

Listen to the man! :D
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luminafire
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Re: Potential

Post by luminafire » Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:52 pm

If I made any other goofs let me know; I want to give him good info. Killroy, everywhere I said potential and attitude please reverse the two terms
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