The Young Arms Race

[ratman44]

I paged through all my leagues and this one currently is way short on Pitchers especially in comparison to my other leagues. Since Chris mentioned it in his post I figured I would share my analysis.

Did a player search for C- or better endurance under 20 current age in the minors or Majors, so on a roster. You get 8 pitchers, 3 of the 8 are OS21, 3 others are C- endurance. So the league currently has 2 legit Starters prospects under 20.

You expand the search to under 23 current age you pick up 48 pitchers, 7 with C or less endurance.

You get
2 A- Overall OS24 (1) -Robertson - OS23 (1) Maclin
9 B+ Overall OS24 -(4) - Hatfield, Shulze, Flaherty, Irabu- OS23 - (5) Sauer, Carter, Belle, Urban, Bonham. (Bonham-Shulze-Sauer are all C+ end, Carter has C control, Flaherty is C Velocity)
10 B Overall OS24 - (3) - Posada, Roth, LaCoss - OS23 (5) - Erickson, Ward, Wight, McCue, Stone, - OS22 -(1) Borokowski, -OS21 - (1) Sproull
14 B- Overall -OS24 - (5), OS23 (4), OS22 (1) McKelvey - OS21 -(3) Spencer, Crawford, Cox - OS20 (1) Oliveras
10 C+ Overall - OS24 (1), OS23 (3), OS22 (2), OS21 (2), OS19 (1) Sheehan - OS18 (1) Taubensee - (Taubensee and Sheehan have C- endurance)
2 C Overall - OS22 (1), - OS18 (1) Kirkwood
1 C- Overall OS19 (1)


Expand the Search to current Age 26...you add (basically 24-26) only giving B overall and better, no names.
3 A overall OS27 (2) both with C+ endurance, OS26 (1)
5 A- Overall OS27 (2), OS26 (1), OS24 (2) All 5 in the AL, one has C- endurance
14 B+ overall OS27 (3), OS26 (6), OS25 (4), OS24 (1)
12 B overall

Supply seems short for what the demand will be in 2-4 years.

[wearewolf]

Draft classes have been so bad you would think a few good ones are on the way?!

[mattyb5000]

Draft classes have been so bad you would think a few good ones are on the way?!

One would hope. Or else we'll go through a period of extremely mediocre-to-awful pitching and gaudy offensive stats!

[kjuncowboy]

Not that it matters because you make a valid point, but you didnt include my guy wheeler. Unless he was one of the guys not mentioned by name. Just that you mention robertson because hes currently 23 but for our game purposes hes os 24 and wheeler is os 24.

[ratman44]

Wheeler is one of the 5 A- all in the AL. Player Search goes by actual age at the time of the search. So Robertson showed up in the 23 and under although he is OS24.

I have contemplated trading Wood many times but keep coming back to this exercise and where he lies on the supply and demand chain is close to priceless given the current atmosphere.

[kjuncowboy]

You have a pretty good young 1-2 punch right now so i dont see why you would as scarce as pitching is. But i suspect it will cycle around and well get some pitching drafts. Those are the ones you hope to have multiple 1sts.

[262run]

Here is all the confirmation of lousy draft classes you need. I thought I had myself well set up for a great rebuild after the 2164 season. I have had FIFTEEN, yes, 15 #1 draft picks and a bad team with high picks in the 5 drafts from 2165 to 2169. I have but ONE good starter, Flaherty, out of all 5 drafts!! There are a couple of okay RPs, but my rebuild is already a bust! I am SERIOUSLY considering starting all over! Just venting, because GMs are allowed to cry in baseball.

Jim~

[cwballer25]

That is crazy....didn’t even realize that. Goes to show you need to be lucky and good to win!

[ratman44]

But having 15 picks is nice but where they are is more important in getting pitching.

If you look at the pick distribution, pick 2, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 9, 10, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16


Most people would agree the stud pitchers go at 1, then the way it normally shakes out pitchers normally go top 5. You only had 3 top 5 picks.

I would have only expected 2-3 good starters from that with 2 or 3 project/teen pitchers getting lucky in the back end.

In 2167 you got Flaherty with 2. You also picks 5 and 6 and you passed on Wight, Oliveras, and Urban who should all be decent starting pitchers. You got Cox at 12 who fits the project starter mentality.

2168 you had pick 5 and there was no SP there at 5 so you took the best RP.

Look at most of the starting pitchers on the winning teams, they are all drafted before 5. Hell half of them are drafted 1. You wouldn't touch the ones on the Yankees with B- control that went in round 2 anyway. So yeah the whole league is down, that is what I was pointing out, but your 15 pick distribution doesn't scream multiple Aces being found.

[ratman44]

At least there are a few good starters and then a couple decent ones. But funny thing is not a single one of them is under 20. A decent reliever prospect under 20 that could maybe morph into a starter, but that is it. So the pitching drought continues.