Rebuilding vs. contending

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GoYanksGo
Posts: 207
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:38 pm

Rebuilding vs. contending

Post by GoYanksGo »

If the bottom hasn't yet fallen out, at what point do you make the determination of when to rebuild instead of making one last ditch effort to compete?

I'm asking because of this team -- http://simdynasty.com/depth.jsp?teamid=137496

Over half of the players on the roster right now are in declines and so if I wait until next year it's very possible I'll get much less/nothing in return for some of the vets. I think it's also likely that we'll be taking a big step back next year anyway because of all the declines and lack of ML ready reinforcements in the farm, so why delay the inevitable.

On the other hand, over a third of the way into the season we're 4 games up on a playoff spot. I don't look at this team as being realistic WS contenders, but I think based on how the first half of the season has gone (and the fact that it was a 97 win team last year) we can definitely make the playoffs and at that point who knows what happens.

My plan coming into the season was to tear it down and rebuild but I don't think I can do that while I'm not just in the playoff mix, but somewhat comfortably occupying a playoff spot. I also don't think I'm necessarily due to regress since I'm actually significantly underperforming my Pyth % (.610 winning percentage, .662 Pyth).

Am I just holding on to hope too long though? Is it generally better to rebuild a year too early than a year too late?
Glug
Posts: 816
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:19 pm

Re: Rebuilding vs. contending

Post by Glug »

I am a consistent re-build early kinda owner. I almost always rebuild a.few years early to get the best deals done. Some leagues you can't do this as noddy trades so you just do what you can and go as long as you can. If you have won like 3 or 4 in a row than yeah go for it to see what can happen but other than that I trade early. In that team? I would probably have e traded a year or two ago. Still have a few quality pieces though.
matthewlee3
Posts: 1013
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:32 pm

Re: Rebuilding vs. contending

Post by matthewlee3 »

I'm generally the opposite, I'll stretch out a window as long as I possibly can (while acknowledging at the tail end of it that it's not worth trading future assets, particularly draft picks, and risking giving away a high pick). I generally let my team tell me when it's time to fold

I think there's no wrong answer to this question generally though, it's fundamentally just your philosophy on the game. None of us are at risk of losing our jobs if the team goes into a long losing streak, or sells when we should've bought or vice versa. The downside to holding on for one last ride is maybe a couple years longer rebuild, whereas the upside is of course that you gotta be in it to win it. Trade off how you like and season to taste. I'm patient enough with long rebuilds cause I know I can see them through and rise again, so I don't mind pushing all in for sometimes several seasons longer than others might, but those can definitely be some painful seasons. It usually equates to something like a 5-7 season down cycle for a competitive window of 12-15ish seasons, which is a ratio I can live with. A special shout out to the GMs that are able to keep their teams afloat without doing any of that though.

As for this team specifically, I would agree with your assessment that it isn't a roster that is likely to finish at the top of the league. Just looking at the other top rosters, I would say you're a couple arms short. On the other hand, I think your roster is already past the point of any sort of optimization play; the trade returns for many of these guys will probably be pretty disappointing given their ages.

Upside: You gotta be in it to win it, and in a 24 team league you have a decent shot (although not a clear path)
Downside: Assuming standard retirement rules in this league, your old guys all stand to lose a decent chunk of their remaining trade value if you hold, especially Arakawa and Domino. Some guys might become entirely untradeable if you wait (e.g., your entire bullpen)

Personally, I would probably start sniffing around for offers to see if anybody entices you enough to pull the trigger immediately/early, while setting a target date on the league calendar for assessing whether to go for it or pivot aggressively to selling. I think if you want to make one final push, you should be willing to move your picks this season but absolutely not any picks in future years. I would hold Coleman, but otherwise your minor leaguers aren't elite and if they draw trade interest I would strongly consider it (in the go-for-it scenario). Conversely, of course, if you want to sell you have all sorts of CPs available for both top prospects and interesting projects.
GoYanksGo
Posts: 207
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:38 pm

Re: Rebuilding vs. contending

Post by GoYanksGo »

Yeah I think I tend to fall into the camp of stretching out a window as long as I possibly can. Looking objectively at this roster, I don't think it's good enough to win as is and it's in need of a rebuild. But largely this same roster got to game 6 of the WS two seasons ago and is still very much in contention this year so I don't think I can get myself to pull the trigger on selling off, even though I acknowledge that'll significantly hurt any value I'll ever get out of most of the vets.

But agreed, I'm not parting with any picks beyond this year either way.
CJefcoat
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:23 pm
Location: Your Mom

Re: Rebuilding vs. contending

Post by CJefcoat »

Please rebuild so I don’t have to get slaughtered by you anymore. Haha
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